200/400 bellagio vs liz lieu - Page 10

Steve Giufre · #91 12-09-2005, 01:39 AM

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You never raise on the end knowing your opponent won't call? There is a benefit to not showing your hand right?
What does bk have that she doesn't beat? 66-88 and a Jack on the 2nd Sunday of the month. (Maybe not that rare but you get the point).
Yes this hand was close but I was agreeing with Boris that in the long run Bike's 44-88 will be crushed when he gets raised on the river in this situation.
I honestly don't think she was desperately trying to get him to fold 77. She just thought her hand was good the way it played.
Also she was sending a message: don't try donking around with me!
Mike

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Your thought process is really a mess here.

hogger · #92 12-09-2005, 03:15 AM

I guess I got the hand wrong then! I would loose 2 BB to bike here most of the time as well I guess.
Any hand I hold that can call him on this board would be a raise and he would own me.
These are the hands I would hold (AA-77 AJ, A9, Flush) that could call. Please illustrate the hands BK would play so passively to the river which beat the above holdings.
I am trying to learn.
Ty Mike

Steve Giufre · #93 12-09-2005, 04:02 AM

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I guess I got the hand wrong then! I would loose 2 BB to bike here most of the time as well I guess.
Any hand I hold that can call him on this board would be a raise and he would own me.
These are the hands I would hold (AA-77 AJ, A9, Flush) that could call. Please illustrate the hands BK would play so passively to the river which beat the above holdings.
I am trying to learn.
Ty Mike

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I dont get what you are saying. She doesnt have those hands, she has A5 and she raised. My point is, even if she thinks she is good say 2 out of 3 times, it still doesnt make sense to raise for value since there just are not very many worse hands BK can have that he can call the river raise with. When he can call the second raise, or if he can three bet and she decides to pay off, she loses another bet or two. You are ignoring the fact that 33 and 44 are pretty much the only hands he can have that will call her raise, and they are unlikely because they arnt normally in BKs range from UTG+1.

I think she was trying to get him to lay down a better hand. Its not impossible at all that she was raising for value, but if she was it was dumb, and she just got lucky he happened to have one of the few hands he could call with.

MNpoker · #94 12-09-2005, 10:30 AM

Also late to the discussion.

What hand(s) are you trying to portray with the river donk? I think this bet screams you missed.

I would have lightning called with A5 here, with alot of confidence that I won.
It's easy to say a 3 bet would have been the right play here AFTER we know her hand, but in general that's just chip spewing.
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I like a 4 bet preflop. Feel free to flame.
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P.S. Liz is EXTREMELY hot.

Paluka · #95 12-09-2005, 10:31 AM

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Also late to the discussion.

What hand(s) are you trying to portray with the river donk? I think this bet screams you missed.

I would have lightning called with A5 here, with alot of confidence that I won.
It's easy to say a 3 bet would have been the right play here AFTER we know her hand, but in general that's just chip spewing.
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Personally I like a 4 bet preflop, a bet on the flop and then give it up. Feel free to flame.
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P.S. Liz is EXTREMELY hot.

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Of course he thinks the river bet makes himself look weak, that is why he called the raise.

MNpoker · #96 12-09-2005, 10:39 AM

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Of course he thinks the river bet makes himself look weak, that is why he called the raise.

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I understand that. What I don't understand is why you quoted me to post it.

His hand is weak, his bet shows weakness. Why bet?

bicyclekick · #97 12-09-2005, 10:55 AM

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Of course he thinks the river bet makes himself look weak, that is why he called the raise.

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I understand that. What I don't understand is why you quoted me to post it.

His hand is weak, his bet shows weakness. Why bet?

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Maybe she'll call me with AQ that would have checked behind or bluff raise me and I get 2 bets. Isn't that obvious? Then again sometimes I'll have to put in 1 or 2 bets when I could have seen the showdown and lost...but still I think my line is best.

MNpoker · #98 12-09-2005, 11:17 AM

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Maybe she'll call me with AQ that would have checked behind or bluff raise me and I get 2 bets. Isn't that obvious? Then again sometimes I'll have to put in 1 or 2 bets when I could have seen the showdown and lost...but still I think my line is best.

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So it was a value bet?

I just don't see that working out often enough to be worthwhile.

'Sorry for all the edits trying to organize my thoughts'

*Note: none of these are 100%
If she has AQ: (what you were hoping for)
I would expect her to check if you check. And fold (you gain nothing) or bluff raise if you bet (you gain 2 bets).

If she has AK: (again good for you)
I would expect her to check if you check. And fold (you gain nothing) or call (you gain 1 bet) or bluff raise if you bet (you gain 2 bets).

On ANY other hand (bad for you)
I think you lose an extra bet. Against me you probably wouldn't have but she (in this case) correctly read your hand and made what I think was a value bet. -- Maybe Liz was trying to push you off something like a medium pair but I think she was value betting. Of course unless we talk to her we will never know.

What hands can you put her on that you beat here other than AK or AQ possibly KQ?

I think you took an 'optimistic' view of her holding. She could have a decent size range of hands here and your play only works in a very small sample of them (IMO) AND you have to believe she will bluff raise instead of bluffing or checking it down to make it worthwhile even in that small sample.

Interesting discussion. I am curious to hear what you think Liz had, what you think Liz thought you thought she had, and how you think she would have acted in those scenarios.

Paluka · #99 12-09-2005, 12:10 PM

BK-

Did you think you were a favorite to win the hand when you bet the river?

Chris Daddy Cool · #**100** 12-09-2005, 01:15 PM

i just read this thread so excuse me if i mentioned something anybody else already did.

couple things:

i really don't see why bk couldn't have a jack here. i see AJ/KJ type hands played this A LOT at all limits from 1/2 to 100/200.

i don't even know who liz is but saying her riase is for value seems like stretching it a bit. it looks to me that she was bluffing, but she just happened to have the best hand.

when bk bets this river what does she think he has? this can be broken down into 5 categories from weakest to strongest:

a) busted draw, not ace high

b) ace high

c) 44, 33, 22

d) TT, 99, 88, 77, 66

e) a jack

not all categories here are weighted euqally of course, but how would you think she would rank these in order of likelyhood?

if you weigh out the possibilities i think her best play is to just call against bk's range of hands. he is not calling a river raise with many of those hands and she knows he knows that she knows that the river bet looks like weakness and he'd be expected to get raised and probably pay off with anything with showdown value, so if she raises AND gets called she should be a pretty big underdog to win the pot with a pair of 5's. so i think with specifically A5 her hand is in her mind mostly a bluff with some thin value (if any at all).

btw, those saying she'd call a 3-bet with A5 are crazy, unless she thinks bk would really spew like that with a missed draw.

als btw, those saying she'd only call with TT, if i were in her shoes i'd be raising all hands from AA-99 maybe even 88.