30/60 vets: Postflop estimate

[Robb]

The game is 30/60 online. Assume you have raised an UTG+1 limper with JJ in LP. BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop is A96 (barely coordinated and contains an Ace, rainbow)
You bet BB folds and UTG+1 check-raises.

UTG is not a maniac. What percent is JJ good here if UTG+1 is:
A) LA
B) LP
C) TA
D) Player is new to you

A)50%
B)10%
C)25%
D)25%

[Robb]

[ QUOTE ]
A)50%
B)10%
C)25%
D)25%

[/ QUOTE ]
Looks about right, imo. Though I think even for an LA 50% is a little high. I might estimate 35-40%. Tough to say.

[DeeJ]

Your percentages don't add up to 100 [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Seriously though, I'd put the odds at
Loose Aggressive : 35%
Loose Passive : 5%
Tight Aggressive : 25%
Unknown : 25%

See, my numbers don't add up to 100 either [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[stoxtrader]

why not figure out what odds you need to see a showdown and estimate if they are giving you the right price?

[Robb]

Well we need both obviously: estimate we are good and pot odds. But since everyone can calculate pot odds I didn't mention it.

But the question can also be phrased: Do you have odds to continue vs this type of opponent?

I think a percentage is more helpful to apply to all hands since pot odds are more objective than your chance of being good. And I'm looking to evaluate my play in all scenarios (except blind stealing) where I'm check-raised as the preflop raiser on an Ace high board.

[stoxtrader]

well, one you can certainly do with more precision than the other, but your point is valid, we are simply approaching the same problem from opposite directions - if you do go to showdown, remember to factor in your 2 outs.

secondly - evaluating "all" your play this way is tough to do, you need to be specific about hands, action, players.

For instance, some very good players I suspect auto-check raise every flop with an ace when defening blinds, which I think is a very good play. Even knowing (suspecting) they always do it, makes it tough for me to play against them.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
Even knowing (suspecting) they always do it, makes it tough for me to play against them.

[/ QUOTE ]really?

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even knowing (suspecting) they always do it, makes it tough for me to play against them.

[/ QUOTE ]really?

[/ QUOTE ]

really.

[Robb]

Sorry....I estimate my average image is aggressive. My tightness factor probably varies quite a bit since I can get aggressive at weird times but on average, I'm probably viewed as a little tight.

Also, assume game is 10 handed.