Random Math / Theory Question

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]
"Does how likely my opponent is to have flopped a certain hand affect how likely he is to have that hand when he represents either it or another hand equally, all other factors withstanding?"

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this makes sense, although I kind of see what you're getting at.

The point is that we can see the flop, and we can see his betting. The unknown information is his hole cards. If the flop is K 7 3 and you tell us that it's equally likely he has a pair of kings or a set of 7s, then guess what? Under those assumptions, it's equally likely he has a pair of kings or a set of 7s.

This is just because you've given us the distribution of his hole cards as being 50% 77 and 50% Kx.

The reason there's a skewing of likelihood between the set and the pair in real life is precisely because there are fewer 77 combinations that Kx combinations.

Guy.