A theoretical baseball question - Page 4

tdarko · #31 10-11-2005, 04:46 PM

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Don't you realize how much easier it is to hit a change-up when you know it's coming?

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i wouldn't throw a change up in this situation (i am telling him what's coming and still trying to get him out), a change up is a pitch that works off of your fastball so obviously if you know its coming why throw it?
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Or to waste a curve-ball if it's in a good spot?

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why would you throw a waste pitch if they know whats coming? maybe to change their eye level if you want to come back with a high fastball, but this is a big "if" b/c they know what's coming. this drill isn't designed to get swing and misses. you wan't to locate pitches and get them to put the ball in play.
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Even a guy like Brad Lidge would get SHELLED, due to the fact that anyone (in the bigs) can hit a 97mph fastball if they know it's coming. Who's gonna swing as his low and away slider anymore?

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true, anyone can hit a 110 mph fastball if they get enough pitches to time it. what you aren't thinking about is that lidge throws that slider down and out of the zone b/c he CAN throw it there b/c they HAVE to swing at it b/c his command and "stuff" is way too good, he simply throws way too hard when not telling the hitter whats coming. when telling the hitter whats coming he would eat up left handed hitters with that hard slider in on their hands. i don't think he would get SHELLED but yes it would be a hell of a lot tougher for him.
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You are vastly underestimating the power of deception for the pitcher. Guys like Kenny Rogers, Jamie Moyer, Tom Glavine... would all be grossly ineffective as they rely heavily on "smart pitching", and putting the ball where the hitter can't adjust to it in time. Example soft stuff low and away then a "sneaky" 87 mph fastball on the inner half. lol. Hitters could wait on this inner fastball and turn on it like you ain't ever seen.

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when did i say anything about these guys and guys that throw soft? even still location guys will do ok in this situation than guys with overpowering stuff leaving pitches over the middle.

bravos1 · #32 10-11-2005, 04:50 PM

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.500 and 100 hrs is ridiculous, you wouldn't see numbers like that off a pitching machine set to the speed of the batter's liking.
I think the average would be pretty close to the league average when the ball is put in play on 3-0 counts, since it's the same situation. I don't know what that is, however.

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Hmmm.. lets think about this a bit. You didn't happen to watch this years All Star game did you? In the first round, Bobby Abreu hit 24 Hrs on 34 swings and 41 in 71 swings. These HRs were done in 3 rounds where he basically had little to no rest. In the first round, he hit for 30 straight minutes and was tailing off towards the end because he was tired.

So yes, if it was a pitching machine, Guys like Bonds and Pujols would be hitting 2-3 a game easily!

tdarko · #33 10-11-2005, 04:54 PM

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but you have to remember that the pitcher still has a major impact in that by keeping the hitter off balance. Pitchers can get away with hanging some pitches because of this. If the hitter knew that a curve/change was coming instead of having to solely react, they would be plastering these hanging pitches even more than they do today.

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this is the whole point of my arguement. pitchers benefit from more times from the batter making the mistake and pitchers benefit more times from the pitcher making a great pitch thus making it tougher for the hitter no matter the situation. the other side of the coin is hitters DO put great swings on pitchers' pitches and get hits and hitters do get lucky bounces and flairs and weird things do happen this is why i have said so many times that baseball has waaaaay to many variables to truly come up with a set number on this.

you guys are saying, "barry would have hit 100 for sure," thats crap. once he got to 80, he would have never got an official AB for the rest of the year (especially since he knows what's coming), these are all variables. this game is to complex to come up with certainties, i just said that i thought that those numbers were high b/c i have dine this at a level close to what is mentioned in the OP and i know for a FACT that it is harder than you think.

#34 10-11-2005, 04:58 PM

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HRs would approach 100.

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This is absurdly high.

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And 73 is not? Bonds hit a HR that year in every 6.5 ABs. You have to also take into consideration that the hitters would be getting many more ABs throughout the season.

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Bonds was a lab experiment. I'm assuming post-steroid era, for whatever that is worth..

#35 10-11-2005, 05:00 PM

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Don't you realize how much easier it is to hit a change-up when you know it's coming?

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i wouldn't throw a change up in this situation (i am telling him what's coming and still trying to get him out), a change up is a pitch that works off of your fastball so obviously if you know its coming why throw it?
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Or to waste a curve-ball if it's in a good spot?

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why would you throw a waste pitch if they know whats coming? maybe to change their eye level if you want to come back with a high fastball, but this is a big "if" b/c they know what's coming. this drill isn't designed to get swing and misses. you wan't to locate pitches and get them to put the ball in play.
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Even a guy like Brad Lidge would get SHELLED, due to the fact that anyone (in the bigs) can hit a 97mph fastball if they know it's coming. Who's gonna swing as his low and away slider anymore?

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true, anyone can hit a 110 mph fastball if they get enough pitches to time it. what you aren't thinking about is that lidge throws that slider down and out of the zone b/c he CAN throw it there b/c they HAVE to swing at it b/c his command and "stuff" is way too good, he simply throws way too hard when not telling the hitter whats coming. when telling the hitter whats coming he would eat up left handed hitters with that hard slider in on their hands. i don't think he would get SHELLED but yes it would be a hell of a lot tougher for him.
[ QUOTE ]
You are vastly underestimating the power of deception for the pitcher. Guys like Kenny Rogers, Jamie Moyer, Tom Glavine... would all be grossly ineffective as they rely heavily on "smart pitching", and putting the ball where the hitter can't adjust to it in time. Example soft stuff low and away then a "sneaky" 87 mph fastball on the inner half. lol. Hitters could wait on this inner fastball and turn on it like you ain't ever seen.

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when did i say anything about these guys and guys that throw soft? even still location guys will do ok in this situation than guys with overpowering stuff leaving pitches over the middle.

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Earth to you: The pitcher does not know that you know what is coming. For the 2nd time... please read the ORIGINAL POST before arguing a moot point.

#36 10-11-2005, 05:01 PM

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but you have to remember that the pitcher still has a major impact in that by keeping the hitter off balance. Pitchers can get away with hanging some pitches because of this. If the hitter knew that a curve/change was coming instead of having to solely react, they would be plastering these hanging pitches even more than they do today.

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this is the whole point of my arguement. pitchers benefit from more times from the batter making the mistake and pitchers benefit more times from the pitcher making a great pitch thus making it tougher for the hitter no matter the situation. the other side of the coin is hitters DO put great swings on pitchers' pitches and get hits and hitters do get lucky bounces and flairs and weird things do happen this is why i have said so many times that baseball has waaaaay to many variables to truly come up with a set number on this.

you guys are saying, "barry would have hit 100 for sure," thats crap. once he got to 80, he would have never got an official AB for the rest of the year (especially since he knows what's coming), these are all variables. this game is to complex to come up with certainties, i just said that i thought that those numbers were high b/c i have dine this at a level close to what is mentioned in the OP and i know for a FACT that it is harder than you think.

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What other variables are we not considering???

bravos1 · #37 10-11-2005, 05:03 PM

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i wouldn't throw a change up in this situation (i am telling him what's coming and still trying to get him out), a change up is a pitch that works off of your fastball so obviously if you know its coming why throw it?

[/ QUOTE ]
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why would you throw a waste pitch if they know whats coming? maybe to change their eye level if you want to come back with a high fastball, but this is a big "if" b/c they know what's coming. this drill isn't designed to get swing and misses. you wan't to locate pitches and get them to put the ball in play.

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You need to go back and read the OP. He stated that the pitcher and other team did not know that the hitter knew what was coming... so from a pitcher perspective, you would still think that you have an edge with deception. But, the pitcher would not as the hitter knows each pitch!

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true, anyone can hit a 110 mph fastball if they get enough pitches to time it. what you aren't thinking about is that lidge throws that slider down and out of the zone b/c he CAN throw it there b/c they HAVE to swing at it b/c his command and "stuff" is way too good, he simply throws way too hard when not telling the hitter whats coming. when telling the hitter whats coming he would eat up left handed hitters with that hard slider in on their hands. i don't think he would get SHELLED but yes it would be a hell of a lot tougher for him.

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This is not right. If the hitter knew Lidge was throwing a slider and it started on the plate, there would be NO reason for the hitter to swing at it because he "knows" it will break down and out of the strikezone. You also have to take into account that Lidge would have to do this multiple times without having the luxary of getting away with grooving one every now and again.
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when did i say anything about these guys and guys that throw soft? even still location guys will do ok in this situation than guys with overpowering stuff leaving pitches over the middle.

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But the location guys would lose a lot of effectiveness because guys like Maddux will not be able to "sneak" that 2 seamer back over the plate. Hitters will know that he is throwing a 2 seamer and will know that it tails back. All of this will already be taken into consideration by the hitter.

Along these same lines about the hitter knowing what is coming, you would see FAR LESS ABs which ended in the hitter chasing a slider 8 inches off the plate and in the dirt. Pitchers would effectively lose the ability to bounce a breakingball up there and have the hitter swing at it.

tdarko · #38 10-11-2005, 05:04 PM

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Earth to you: The pitcher does not know that you know what is coming. For the 2nd time... please read the ORIGINAL POST before arguing a moot point.

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calm down, i forgot. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

#39 10-11-2005, 05:06 PM

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Earth to you: The pitcher does not know that you know what is coming. For the 2nd time... please read the ORIGINAL POST before arguing a moot point.

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calm down, i forgot. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Fine, but I already mentioned it once. Then to see you go on this rant about not throwing a change up b/c it's not deceptive.. blah blah.. I can't have a logical discussion with that.

bravos1 · #40 10-11-2005, 05:07 PM

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HRs would approach 100.

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This is absurdly high.

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And 73 is not? Bonds hit a HR that year in every 6.5 ABs. You have to also take into consideration that the hitters would be getting many more ABs throughout the season.

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Bonds was a lab experiment. I'm assuming post-steroid era, for whatever that is worth..

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LOL.. nice.

Let's take this year. Andruw Jones hit 51 HRs (I believe, too lazy to check). He strikes out A LOT, especially on good offspeed stuff when he gets caught out on his front leg and is off balance. He would not have this problem if he know the curve was coming. Also if this was true, I would not have to scream at my TV every time he chased a breaking ball which was thrown 58.5 feet!