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#1
10-18-2005, 10:19 PM
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Re: Good LAG Spot or Just Chip Spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
Hope it worked out. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah. An 8 came on the river and I ended up with a straight. Big surprise, he had AA. I actually posted this hand for a reason. A lot, it sometimes seems too many, of the hands posted here are ones where Hero played it right but ended up losing. Walking home from the club, I came to the conclusion that I had played this one pretty poorly and just gotten lucky. Thanks. And ML4L, I agree. Great post. Made a wonderful point I won't soon forget. 
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#3
10-18-2005, 09:34 PM
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Re: Good LAG Spot or Just Chip Spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Good LAG Spot? [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Hero calls [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Hero calls. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Hero calls. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Hero calls. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] ML4L [/ QUOTE ]beat me to it.
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#6
10-18-2005, 02:33 PM
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Re: Good LAG Spot or Just Chip Spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] . Rock in BB makes it 105, limpers fold, CO calls, Hero calls. [/ QUOTE ] ??? Is your position in this hand so much of an advantage that you really want to be in this hand? Against this player(s)?
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#8
10-18-2005, 03:07 PM
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Re: Good LAG Spot or Just Chip Spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming ~100BB stack sizes... PF is awful. Even if you stack him every time you outflop him, you're losing money. If it were much deeper, you might be able to justify it. [/ QUOTE ] unless i missed it, he didnt include stack sizes, but if we assume $1k stacks to start, then he can win $255+895, while only calling $70 more. unless im doing something wrong, that call is ok, right?
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#9
10-18-2005, 03:19 PM
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Re: Good LAG Spot or Just Chip Spewing?
1150:70 = 16.5:1
pokenum -h kc kd - 5h 6s Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Kc Kd 1378058 80.48 328977 19.21 5269 0.31 0.806 6s 5h 328977 19.21 1378058 80.48 5269 0.31 0.194 Now, since these odds are from PF to the RIVER... and the fact that hero obviously improves to beat the overpair on later streets some percentage of the time (Particularly when flopping one pair or a straight draw), I think we can probably extrapolate that the odds of outflopping him are a substantially worse. Not to mention redraws when he DOES outflop him, particularly with two pair. If we go to factor in times when he outplays him after the flop....it might get a bit closer, but I imagine that the times it doesn't work probably offset any advantage there, anyway.
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#10
10-19-2005, 07:56 AM
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Re: Good LAG Spot or Just Chip Spewing?
[ QUOTE ]
Now, since these odds are from PF to the RIVER... and the fact that hero obviously improves to beat the overpair on later streets some percentage of the time (Particularly when flopping one pair or a straight draw), I think we can probably extrapolate that the odds of outflopping him are a substantially worse. [/ QUOTE ] I did the math out once for two unsuited, non-conenctors, and the odds of flopping two pair or better is ~ 29:1 agianst. So, adding in strtaight possibilities i can't imagine would make it better than 20:1 against. So i think it's pretty safe to say this was bad PF.
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