Do I need to protect my hand?

[chopchoi]

I recently started this thread:

Pokerroom $20 SNG with $100 added. 4 handed, blinds 150/300, and about to increase. I''m BB w/ AA. I have about 3,900 chips, SB has about 4,100. 1 other player has about 4,500. The smalles stack is 2,500.

SB is pretty tight. He min-raises. I mean to re-raise to 1,200 but make a mistake and only raise to 900. He calls.

Flop is A,Q,J rainbow. He checks. The straight potential is scary, but my hand is strong enough that I want to make some money off of it. I don't want to bet him out of the pot. I figure if he has anything, he'll call a half-pot bet, so I bet 900. He calls.

The turn is a 10. F#ck! He leads out with the minimum bet of 600. I really don't see him doing this without the K. I call, praying the river will pair the board. It doesn't. He bets 600 again.


The small stack is weak, and I figure with 1,500 chips, I have a good shot of making it into the money, but with 900, It'll be hard. Would anyone fold here?


The overwhelming response was that if I had pushed the flop like I was supposed to, I never would have been in this position to begin with. The more I thought about it, the more convinced I became that pushing the flop was not the right move. So I am starting a new thread to deal with this issue.

If he has KT, I'm going to pay him off one way or the other, so thais doesn't matter. What we need to establish is, how often will I be ahead on the flop, but lose the hand on the turn?

The only cards I fear are the 4 K's and the 4 T's. The odds are about 5:1 that one of these cards won't come. Now, if one does come, I only lose if he makes a straight. So, If a T comes, he needs to have a K, and if a K comes, he must have a T. Of all the hands he raised me with PF, how many would have either a K or a T? Half seems like a reasonable estimat. so we'll say he has a K 25% of the time, and a T 25% of the time. So, a scare card comes one time in 5, and it makes him a straight 1 time in 4. So, he will only take the lead on the turn 1 time in 20, and even then, I hvae a ten out re-draw. I lose here only about 4% of the time.

My odds of winning are high enough that I don't need to worry about protecting my hand.

[MastiffPaul]

I'm going to push my reply to this thread so I don't have to defend myself from others.

There's a certain logic to the above statement. On one hand, it makes perfect sense. On the other hand, it's deeply flawed. Pushing to avoid post-flop play is wise in fewer cases than the cases in which it's just plain lazy, in my opinion.

For what it's worth, I would not have pushed preflop, but I probably would have on the flop.

[TheNoodleMan]

do you really need a 2 threads for 1 hand?

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
My odds of winning are high enough that I don't need to worry about protecting my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your reasoning for slowing down might be OK if you weren't on the bubble with a respectable stack. Your number one priority at this point is to get ITM with a good chunk of change and to avoid unnecessary risk. You have the opportunity to shut down a hand and take down 1800 chips, virtually assuring you ITM and increasing your chances of 1st and 2nd. You are almost always ahead of any hand on the flop, thus getting your money in here when you are a favorite forces your opponent to make mistakes. And when your opponent makes mistakes, you profit.

Your option to slow down the hand and bet less than the pot for a slightly greater return risks losing your whole stack if a K or a T falls (which it did for a 3-1 chance, not a 5-1). It also gives him the correct odds to call a lot of hands.

I think the choice here is obvious.