Double Up Method - Could it work?

[umdpoker]

if you are doubling after every loss at -200, it won't take a very bad losing streak to cause serious pain.

[villafan]

Lets say you have matches with what we in Europe call odds at 2. You double your money when you win. How much will you be able to win if you lose the three first bets, but win the fourth?

Bet 1: Stake 100 - loss is 100
Bet 2: Stake 200 - loss is 200
Bet 3: Stake 400 - loss is 400

Then you win

Bet 4: Stake 800 - win 800.

Your total profit from this successful Martingale series (you are successful because you did not go bust before you got your win) is only 100 dollar. That is not a good risk-reward.

Lets say you lose 6 bets and win bet number 7.

1) Bet 100 - loss 100
2) Bet 200 - loss 200
3) Bet 400 - loss 400
4) Bet 800 - loss 800
5) Bet 1600 - loss 1600
6) Bet 3200 - loss 3200

Now you have accumulated total losses of 6300 dollar. Would probably make you a bit nervous, right? But your Martingale project is successful and you do actually win the 7th bet.

7) Bet 6400 - win 6400.

WOW! You just made a fantastic profit of 100 dollar over your 7 bets!

Risk Reward is just extremely bad at this system.

[krackerjack]

Well said Villafan. You demonstrated the exact reason why doubling up is such a horrible proposition. Chances are that with a good team you won't lose more than seven in a row. But if it happens, you are screwed. And when you win -- you've sweated out a potentially huge loss for a lousy one unit profit. Just not worth the risk for the reward.

On another topic, I joined the thread late so I am not sure what Vinny suggested, but it sounds like he has the right idea. I used to follow baseball religiously and made a ton of money picking teams in the right spots. I wouldn't even have to look at pitching matchups to know that when certain teams were in a position to win or lose. For example, one team would always win their third game in a four-game series after losing the first two games. Always. That particular season it was 100 percent (seven times I think...) So following teams and trends can be a great way to win money in baseball rather than JUST looking at pitching matchups. Also, following trends for a specific pitcher is another great way. Just my two cents

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]


On another topic, I joined the thread late so I am not sure what Vinny suggested, but it sounds like he has the right idea. I used to follow baseball religiously and made a ton of money picking teams in the right spots. I wouldn't even have to look at pitching matchups to know that when certain teams were in a position to win or lose. For example, one team would always win their third game in a four-game series after losing the first two games. Always. That particular season it was 100 percent (seven times I think...) So following teams and trends can be a great way to win money in baseball rather than JUST looking at pitching matchups. Also, following trends for a specific pitcher is another great way. Just my two cents

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't even now how to respond to this gibberish.

[sportypicks.com]

Krackerjack,

While I do agree on the Martingale topic, I do disagree about your logic with the 3rd game in a 4 game series.

Even if there were 7 straight wins does that mean it's going to happen again?

In my opinion, baseball is not like other sports where trying harder means better results. I assume you think teams would try harder because they lost the first 2 games correct?

If your point is it's the law of averages (they are due)I disagree with that too because every game is independent of every other game so what happened in the prior 2 games has no relevance.

Trying harder to hit a baseball does not guarantee success, nor does trying to throw harder. In actuality, the reverse might be true.

Now if you showed me say 500 instances of this circumstance and had similar results, I would be more inclined to believe it. But 7 games doesn't do it for me.

[Mousenuts]

I appreciate all of the feedback. I guess I am going to need a liitle more to understand what seems to be the board's concensus that this system will not work.

In both of the examples you gave, you still won money. You were 1 and 4 winning one unit in the first example and one and 7 winning one unit in the next example.

Let's say that I do not think the Angels will lose 7 games in a row this year starting at the beginning of a week and I have an unlimited bankroll, I am still missing something?

Thoughts appreciated.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say that I do not think the Angels will lose 7 games in a row this year starting at the beginning of a week and I have an unlimited bankroll, I am still missing something?


[/ QUOTE ]

Read my post on Martingale systems. But since you asked, even if you had an unlimited bankroll, you would still have betting limits at sportsbooks.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
I appreciate all of the feedback. I guess I am going to need a liitle more to understand what seems to be the board's concensus that this system will not work.

In both of the examples you gave, you still won money. You were 1 and 4 winning one unit in the first example and one and 7 winning one unit in the next example.

Let's say that I do not think the Angels will lose 7 games in a row this year starting at the beginning of a week and I have an unlimited bankroll, I am still missing something?

Thoughts appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you will usually win money doing this. The one time you don't you lose all of your money.

[krackerjack]

sportypicks

I was not saying that one should always find a team that has lost the first two of a four game series and bet that team. That would be a recipe for disaster. My point was that in baseball you can learn to spot trends that work for a specific team/specific pitcher and utilize these trends for a maximum profit. I used the one case as an example -- this particular team (in this particular season) would always bounce back after losing the first two of a four-game series. Certain pitchers will behave in a certain way under certain circumstances. Studying and religiously following the sport (get the MLB Extra Innings via satellite and watch as many games as possible) will pay great dividends. That's my own opinion and it has paid off well for me -- baseball is generally my only truly profitable sport and it always bankrolls my football and college basketball betting.

I am never in favor of the Martingale system. But if you insist on using it (i don't) pick your spots. Don't just jump in randomly and hope that the team you picked is going to win one "eventually".

[RedeemerKing]

No.....streaks will happen. In basketball a few years back GS didnt cover for like 18 games in a row, and guess who had them 18 games in a row. When the braves had like a 15 game winning streak a couple of years ago guess who was against them for the last 10. Streaks over 6-7 games are unlikely but VERY VERY costly if they were to happen with the double up strategy