KJo in the BB

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I'm saying I may not make a +EV play if it gives me a higher chance of making a much more +EV play later, and just as importantly, decreases my chances of making a -EV play later in the hand.


Might be better to refine your postflop play so that you're not makig -EV plays because you raised when you were in a +EV situation pre-flop.

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It's not mathematically possible. By the sheer virtue of raising preflop, you make the pot larger, and make some decisions, which may have been closer had you not raised, different decisions. This is both true for your plan and for your opponent's play.

So, for example, we're faced with the following situation:

You raise preflop and flop top pair. On the river, the second card pairs (board K4828), and you are raised after betting out. Your opponent is passive in general but there is a certain chance of him bluffing at a scare card.

Your preflop play, which allowed you an increase of approximately 27% of 4SB at a cost of 1SB (a net gain of .08SB), has made it possibly correct for you to call in a larger pot on the river, despite the fact that your opponent likely has you beat.

Your preflop play, which had a marginal effect on the overall expected value of the hand, has subsidized the cost of an incorrect river call.

The added fact that you are often making it profitable for a hand like A8 to call on an KJ8 flop is also something to consider. If your opponents are likely to call anyway, it is worth considering that you may want them to be making the incorrect (from an EV standpoint) play, which will be calling when they don't have odds. You don't want a 5-outer to call getting 9:1+ on an KJ8 flop, but they will. However, if you hadn't raised preflop, they will still be calling on that same KJ8 flop.

These are all things worth considering before you decide that "any equity" is worth pushing.

Rob