live hand--how good of a read do I need to fold this?

[Walker]

BB is is a Lee Jones disciple. He's tight/slightly passive pf, and really ABC post flop.

UTG+1 is very loose and does all sorts of weird stuff. A couple of times he check raised (in multway pots) bottom pair+bdfd type draws and TPNK when he's obviously behind (he checked the next street so he wasn't semibluffing)

UTG+2 is a fish

6 limpers, I limp on the button A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], blinds call

(7.25SB)Flop: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

checked to me and I bet, blinds call, UTG raises, UTG+2 calls I 3 bet, everybody calls

(9.5 BB)Turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB bets, everybody calls.

(13.5BB)River: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB bets and everybody calls

Under what circumstances can I fold this turn?

Edit: BB is loose from the blinds
(I added the pot size)

[thesharpie]

Include the pot size and number of players involved, and don't fold unless you have a read he'd jam a set on the flop but not a flush.

Edit: Nevermind I thought the BB jammed the flop.

[milesdyson]

an insanely great fantastic read (BVT comes to mind).

why no river raise? you really think he would donk the turn w/ a boat into that many players who went crazy on that flop?

[thesharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
you really think he would donk the turn w/ a boat into that many players who went crazy on that flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Also lee jones disciples like to play it "fast" on the flop with a set on a suited flop, maybe not top 2 but he only plays that suited.

[Alex/Mugaaz]

Think about how often you have to be wrong for raising to be incorrect. Now think about how often you have to be right to call on the turn. Now if these are not consistent then which one of your decisions was wrong?

[BarkingMad]

Getting 15 to 1 on the turn, I think you have enough overlay to draw to the nut flush.

If UTG hit set on the flop he'd be popping the turn.

Sometimes you'll lose to BB's boat, but I think you're good often enough to make drawing profitable.

To answer your question, I think your read would have to be very, very, good.

BM

Edit: Fixed the turn odds (assuming five players in for three bets on flop; sb, bb, utg, utg+2, & you). You need to look closer at the pot sizes you posted.

[Walker]

BVT?

[ QUOTE ]

why no river raise? you really think he would donk the turn w/ a boat into that many players who went crazy on that flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. I almost want to fold the river more than I did on the turn. I doubt this guy even bets here with the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I can't fold though, so I just called.

If I call the turn do you think I have to be able to raise the river if I hit? If I did, I don't think I can call a 3 bet, and that just makes me want to cry.

[Walker]

[ QUOTE ]
Think about how often you have to be wrong for raising to be incorrect. Now think about how often you have to be right to call on the turn. Now if these are not consistent then which one of your decisions was wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]


I'll give it a shot. I'm getting 4-1 on my money if everybody calls and I can fold to a 3-bet (if I can't ???).

On the turn, I was right to call if I was drawing live ~1/3 of the time (or a little less because some of my club outs might make someone a boat)

On the river, I can be pretty sure BB doesn't have just trips, a straight, or a baby flush, so this reduces the chances I am ahead.

So...(I really have no idea how to put this all together)

[Alex/Mugaaz]

It looks to me like you almost got it.

[BarkingMad]

[ QUOTE ]
Think about how often you have to be wrong for raising to be incorrect

[/ QUOTE ]

On the turn, even if the SB folds to your raise, you are putting in 25% of all turn betting. You'll make the nut flush 35% of the time, so if the board was not paired you could pretty accurately gauge your pot equity edge to be 10% (if sb folds) or 15% (if sb calls two cold on turn). In this case, you need to ask yourself how much of that pot equity has been eroded by the pair on board. If you think the answer is less than 10% (or 15%), respectively, than raising is correct.

[ QUOTE ]
Now think about how often you have to be right to call on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

If we ask "how often will my nut flush be good on the river", the answer needs to be at least "6.6% of the time", getting 15 to 1 like we are here.

On the river, getting 20 to 1, you only need to be good 5% of the time to make calling breakeven.

The more I think about this, the more I think that Miles Dyson said (almost) everything that needed to be said here. The only thing he could've added was to jam the turn.