AQ Offsuit's expectation, A experiment

[Tranvisor]

My friend and I are both rounders in Ohio, we generally frequent $5/$10 home games, as well as charity poker events run on the weekends. Anyway, we decided to make a bet on how much profit AQ offsuit expects to make everytime you get it. I bet half a big bet ($5) and he bet .35 of a big bet ($3.50).

We decided to resolve the bet after 180 trials. Now I know this is likely not a large enough sample size but as Live players we are lucky to see 30 hands an hour. In an effort to settle the bet in a timely fashion we decided on 180.

As for the details of the study, whenever I get AQo I keep exact track of how much money I lose (if I lose) and if I win I take the pot size (minus the bets that came from my stack) and record it. Also if I happen to fold it preflop that does count for the average (gets recorded as a zero win). Oh, and one more thing, if I am sitting at a $10/$20 game I make the appropriate division required to pare the results down to $5/$10 terms (for example :$140 pot minus $70 my bets, then taking the remaining $70 and dividing by two to get the resulting equivalent $5/$10 pot profit = $35)

So guys, two questions. First, what do you think AQo's EV will be in these loose Ohio live games? Second, while we picked 180 trials for brevity, what is the appropriate number of trials for a finding accurate to plus or minus 5%?

As a sidenote, I am currently about 20% through the study, do you guys want me to update this post every 20 or so trials with the new average?

[RoundersRocks!]

What part of Ohio do you play in? There is an amazingly soft omaha tourney in Athens every monday. Actually, every night of the week in athens was pretty amazing.

PS, no one actually calls themselves a rounder

[ianlippert]

I have 50K hands of loose low limit games tracked in poker tracker, and my AQo win .40 BB/hand. Hope that helps.

[varoadstter]

[ QUOTE ]
My friend and I are both rounders in Ohio...

[/ QUOTE ]

When you're not at band camp, right?

[AaronBrown]

You guys are tough. "Rounders" used to be a perfectly respectable term, only tournament players called themselves "pros." Then the movie came out, and everyone who actually played poker stopped using it, because everyone who didn't play poker started.

Pokerroom has stats on this question, they say +$6.20. While their games may not be similar to yours, their sample is much larger, 1,101,249 AQo's.

I assume you mean by 180 trials, you mean 180 hands on which you are dealt AQo. With average luck, that will take you 663 hours of play at 30 hands/hour. My guess is your standard deviation per hand will be about $50, but that depends entirely on the kind of game you and your opponents play. Over 180 trials, you're left with a standard deviation of $3.73.

[Tranvisor]

I just said rounders because I was looking for an easy way to say that my friend and I live about 3.5 hours away from the nearest casino, don't play on the internet, yet manage to get in about 40-50 hours a week playing at various house games and such. I didn't realise everybody hated that word apparently, I have only played as a job for about a year. The home games in our area of ohio are quite active (for any particular day of the week there is about 2-3 house games to choose from). I didn't mean to be like "Hey, I'm awesome, I'm a rounder, you know from the movie, I rule"

As for the updates, sorry I was tired when I typed that last sentence, posting the average every 20 times would be dumb.

I just wanted to see if anybody had ever tried something like this for live games, My friend and I thought it would be a interesting thing to do. Something to liven up the grind a little bit and bet $20 on.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I just said rounders because I was looking for an easy way to say that my friend and I live about 3.5 hours away from the nearest casino, don't play on the internet, yet manage to get in about 40-50 hours a week playing at various house games and such. I didn't realise everybody hated that word apparently, I have only played as a job for about a year. The home games in our area of ohio are quite active (for any particular day of the week there is about 2-3 house games to choose from). I didn't mean to be like "Hey, I'm awesome, I'm a rounder, you know from the movie, I rule"

As for the updates, sorry I was tired when I typed that last sentence, posting the average every 20 times would be dumb.

I just wanted to see if anybody had ever tried something like this for live games, My friend and I thought it would be a interesting thing to do. Something to liven up the grind a little bit and bet $20 on.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really manage to make a living playing 5/10 home games 40-50 hours a week?

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
As a sidenote, I am currently about 20% through the study, do you guys want me to update this post every 20 or so trials with the new average?

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously - No.

[dogmeat]

This is a very important, scientific experiment with stringent controls. Make sure you continue to update us with your results nine times so we can enjoy the excitement of 180 AQ pots. Good Luck.

Dogmeat :spade

p.s. I had pizza today. I'll let you know how it goes.

[Guthrie]

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