Anything wrong here? - Page 2

milesdyson · #11 12-14-2005, 01:19 PM

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I bet fold this turn. There is a good chance you are ahead here, people are going to peel that flop with total crap.

I am undecided on your river play. it is unclear to me if we're ahead 10% of the time after he 3bets.

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we aren't, but i think it's worth paying off to see what he played like this.

jba · #12 12-14-2005, 01:43 PM

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we aren't, but i think it's worth paying off to see what he played like this.

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I think this is about the most overrated thing on this board, the whole paying off for info thing. the player pool is so big that if the EV of this is even -.2bb I don't think we should expect to ever make it up based on a read.

milesdyson · #13 12-14-2005, 02:10 PM

that's where we disagree - i will gladly spend a fraction of a big bet for this information.

plus this guy is an unknown and he has now shown an aggressive move - it is more likely that this player is overaggressive simply based on this. we really have no idea how often we're good here, but calling can not be very bad.

jba · #14 12-14-2005, 02:13 PM

"i will gladly spend a fraction of a big bet for this information."

considering my winrate is around .02BB/hand, -.2/bb seems like a big ass hole to dig out of..

cfjr2 · #15 12-14-2005, 02:17 PM

I think you should have bet the turn. If you had and he called you can be fairly certain he has a str8 draw or a pair. If villan then bets the river you call and save 1 bet, if villan check raises the river you can call and you are even with the line taken (or fold but I don't like that much as he may bluff into your agressiveness)

so even if my assumption that villan bets the river after your turn bet only happens 10% of the time you still save .1 bet when you lose this - so overall slightly +EV over line taken.

There is the down side if you don't improve on the river but I think it evens out with when you win on the turn if villan folds bottom pair and when you improve to the nut str8.

Once you have a read on a specific villan this would change of course

cfjr2 · #16 12-14-2005, 02:19 PM

depends you may lose .2 bb immediately but if the info is worth anything you should save or make additional fractions against this villan for the remaining time he stays at the table.

milesdyson · #17 12-14-2005, 03:06 PM

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"i will gladly spend a fraction of a big bet for this information."

considering my winrate is around .02BB/hand, -.2/bb seems like a big ass hole to dig out of..

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ten hands is a big ass hole?

plus you really don't think seeing his hand is going to help you immensely against him later in this session? i mean sure it's possible he just gets up and leaves soon, or you're nearing the end of your own session. but if you plan to stay, it's not a big loss for the info you get.

jba · #18 12-14-2005, 03:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"i will gladly spend a fraction of a big bet for this information."

considering my winrate is around .02BB/hand, -.2/bb seems like a big ass hole to dig out of..

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ten hands is a big ass hole?

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you think you're going to net an extra .2bb in the next ten hands on this read alone? no way

milesdyson · #19 12-14-2005, 03:26 PM

no, i'm saying it will only take me ten hands to recover the losses from this call if he just gets up and leaves. i was simply saying that this is not a huge loss.

meanwhile, if he stays seated, i will be able to play much better against him. typically i will play enough hands with him that this money is well spent.

zephed · #20 12-14-2005, 03:52 PM

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Villain had only played a couple of hands and I had no reads or stats on him.

Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (6 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6.00 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.00 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks. (I don't like betting here against unknown villains)

River: (4.00 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.00 BB.

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Grunching...

I prefer betting the turn and taking a free showdown UI because of the straight draw on board. I don't want to have to call the river UI. Also, if I improve, I can put in another bet on the river.

When you bet the turn, you will get calls out of draws, overcards etc. You'll also get called when behind, but that is moot since we want to see a showdown regardless (calling a bet on the end after checking turn).

In the long run, getting AK to showdown will be more profitable when it's done without the villain showing any aggression (betting the turn and letting him call instead of snapping off an infrequent bluff). If you check turn and call river, you are less likely ahead because a bet is more likely to mean you are behind. Some of the times he will check and fold, and you gain nothing. I think this level is fishy enough to make turn bets profitable. However, if your villain doesn't call light, then I would lean towards a check, and fold river UI.

I like the river raise, but I think you have to fold when it's 3-bet. The pot's not big enough I don't think.