Your ENTIRE bankroll on AA...do you do it?

[dlk9s]

Those who say they would risk it all if they knew they could get someone to stake them if they busted are not really risking their entire bankroll.

[Zetack]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Its why recently while playing on pokerstars, I started to get really annoyed at all the people who use their children's pictures as their player avatars. 90 percent of them are losing players, and are losing money that they could be giving to their kids.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you are overreacting. People have baby pictures as avatars because they have pictures of them on their computer. My picture isn't even of my son -- it's just some kid I won playing poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

/me doing a spit-take.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

--Zetack

[JTrout]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If my memory of Kelly is right (to maximize bankroll)

2 x (chance - 50).

So if chance (of winning with Aces) is 80%, then 2 x (80-50) =60% or bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Kelly assume that your win rate is proportional to your bankroll? This makes sense in blackjack or sports betting where you can make the same plays and simply wager more. In poker, however, you can't necessarily just sit in a bigger game to double your win rate. So thoeritically poker players should want to risk a smaller percentage, no?

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm not qualified to answer your question. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I know I would risk less than 60% of my bankroll on this proposition.

[Zetack]

I'm a little puzzled. Under any reasonable scenario I can see this situation arising you are probably only 2.17% to win. Your risk of ruin is correspondingly small but I don't see much incentive to make this play on that basis.

Obvoiusly there are some variables that make this percentage inexact, but still, bump this up to say 4 percent or so likelihood of winning and I still don't see the attaction.

--Zetack

[jdoe]

yes

And if could take KdKs vs Kh2d I will put everything I own and will own in the next 10 years.

One time.

Jdoe

[boose_bagina]

[ QUOTE ]
yes

And if could take KdKs vs Kh2d I will put everything I own and will own in the next 10 years.

One time.

Jdoe

[/ QUOTE ]
If I was bill gate rich, I would take you up on this in a second, and I would also find 19 other people willing to do this, then I'd laugh at how stupid people are when one of you f*cks up your entire life.

Cheers [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[NDHand]

You're a 4 to 1 favorite to double up your money. A clear +EV move. I guess it depends what your "bankroll" is. If poker isnt your only source of income you can, depending on your job, build another relatively quickly by saving up your paychecks. If I could dump my paychecks every 2 weeks on that gamble I would do it every single time.

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you wouldn't put your entire bankroll pre-flop on AA, then why are you playing poker? That's the best odds poker has to offer!

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct.
The 32% of people who answered no should not be playing poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

that't not true. depending on the size of your bankroll relative to your other assets, the risk of losing it is more than the the benefit of doubling it - if it's not immediately replenishable.

remember, probably ~15% of the time you do this, you will go broke. that's an insanely high risk of ruin. for a 2BB/100 player with an SD of 17/100, that's like playing with a 118 BB bankroll. acceptable if you're TAKING A SHOT , but for the people that answered yes, I suggest you go learn a little something about bankroll management and risk of ruin. it'll probably help you not go bust

[Sixth_Rule]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you wouldn't put your entire bankroll pre-flop on AA, then why are you playing poker? That's the best odds poker has to offer!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


"But there's only one bullet, and there are six chambers!"

[/ QUOTE ]

[arcticfox]

It really depends on the size of your bankroll to answer this question.

For another hypothetical question - the dealer gives you the 2 red aces out of the desk on condition that you put all your bankroll in pre-flop and with the knowledge that the other 9 players at the table will call your all-in with the 2 random cards they are dealt from the deck without the red aces in. Would you take it?

This is a lot more +EV than the HU example given at the start of this thread but am guessing the people who would take this bet are far fewer and that is illogical for those saying if you are a poker player you should take this bet, as you should take the 9 callers bet more as a poker player from an EV point of view.