A post to put all of your results in to perspective...

[Mr_J]

I'm played around 1900 sngs since jan this year.
Around 1350 of these are 22s.
Around 500 are $33s.
And maybe 40 $55s.

Overall, I have:
12.5% ROI at the $22s.
0% at the $33s
-38% at the $55s

I KNOW the reasons I have run poorly. It hasn't come from getting involved too much early, or being too conservative or too aggressive shorthanded. I'm not a perfect player, but I KNOW where my skill level is at, and KNOW I'm quite a bit better than these results suggest. So before any of you complain about your latest -30 buyin drop, please remember there are some who are much more unlucky and run thousands of sngs WELL below EV.

I'd happily take a 50 buyin drop every week if it meant I could hit EV every 1k sngs.

[Nick B.]

Have you beaten the $3 level before. This doesn't appear to be a variance. If I were you, I would take a closer look to see if you can beat the higher levels. Don't think that because you are beating the game for 12ROI on the 22's that will carry up.

[Mr_J]

"Have you beaten the $3 level before. This doesn't appear to be a variance. If I were you, I would take a closer look to see if you can beat the higher levels. Don't think that because you are beating the game for 12ROI on the 22's that will carry up."

These results have nothing to do with my skill. I've run very poorly over alot of sngs. I know what it looks like, but that's why I'm posting it (to show people how poorly you can run, and to show that maybe they're not so unlucky after all).

[Mr_J]

Forgot to add, I'm much better than 12% at the $22s.

[citanul]

just for references sake, you should probably post your total 22s stats for prior to this year.

citanul

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
just for references sake, you should probably post your total 22s stats for prior to this year.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think he has any. in an earlier post (correct me if i'm wrong mr j) he said he started playing SNGs in Jan.

which is why this post is a circular argument. Mr J knows he's good. we don't know him so we can't confirm that. he doesn't have enough data to convince us that he really is good. so we have nowhere to go with this conversation. the average reader in this forum isn't going to believe his assertion about the quality of his play until he's got a few thousand SNGs to back it up, or until he posts comments about actual hands showing that he knows what he's taklking about. until that happens, his advice isn't considered to have any merit.

[Ryendal]

Well I experienced such bad run last month.
I could'nt believe it. every day I was playing, I made 0/4 in the first 4 games. sometimes 0/8.

Finally when I look at my stats it was exactly a 0% ROI at the 33$ on 350 games. It so weird when your friends can't believe you on the importance of the variance. Half they believe you, half they think you don't play so well, after all !


But I can say that this bad run helped me to work the game.
Without it I would be weaker than now. I am almost happy to be well aware of that, while it wasn't so important to get some money.

I have decided to be a pro, and have still about one year to get a good level. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Forgot to add, I'm much better than 12% at the $22s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say you're really a 20% player at the 22's. Over 1350 SnGs, you have about a 3% chance of running this bad.

Just a random fact that you can interpret as you will.

eastbay

[Mr_J]

I've run into plenty of these sorts of situations.

What is the chance that a 55% capper I follow loses 20 units at the beginning of a season? What is the chance that a friend misses 2 weeks of betting were my picks go 18-1? What is the chance that I miss posting my picks at ssb (a website) for those 2 weeks? What is the chance that I miss posting twice as many wins as losses? What is the chance that all the sports I bet on lose at the same time yet all finish the season as comfortable winners? What is the chance that I start betting just as a handicapper runs poorly? I could go on and on.

I have no doubts about my skill. I don't think I'm gods gift or anything, just that I'm a good player for my stakes.

You say 3%? This doesn't mean it doesn't happen. That means 3 people for every 100 on this forum will run this poorly. Maybe I'm just unlucky enough to be one of those people.

[WarDekar]

Not entirely sure if this has been discussed or not before, but don't you think it's possible SNG results don't follow a normal distribution? Truly you don't believe it's as simple as you've stated above.