AK vs. likely probe bet

gildwulf · #1 07-13-2005, 12:49 PM

What's your play here:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed) converter

SB (t190)
BB (t1450)
UTG (t835)
UTG+1 (t775)
UTG+2 (t1225)
MP1 (t1170)
MP2 (t775)
MP3 (t305)
Hero (t775)
Button (t500)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls t30, 2 folds, Hero raises to t125, 3 folds, MP1 calls t95.

Flop: (t295) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets t125, Hero....

1) pushes
2) folds
3) calls

Explain your reasoning and why.

Unarmed · #2 07-13-2005, 01:32 PM

Calling is no good because its inconsistent with you having any type of hand that can withstand a turn push, so he'll just open push the turn.

Pushing is just weird. You'll fold out mid PP and Axd, and he'll call you with his monsters, in whch case your outs are dead. So you can push with anything here. All you have is your impetus, but he just took this from you with the flop bet.

Just fold. You have nothing, its really that simple.

gildwulf · #3 07-13-2005, 01:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Calling is no good because its inconsistent with you having any type of hand that can withstand a turn push, so he'll just open push the turn.

Pushing is just weird. You'll fold out mid PP and Axd, and he'll call you with his monsters, in whch case your outs are dead. So you can push with anything here. All you have is your impetus, but he just took this from you with the flop bet.

Just fold. You have nothing, its really that simple.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point of pushing is to fold out PP.

11t · #4 07-13-2005, 01:40 PM

Readless, I fold here.

If I thought he was weak-tight and tryiing to find out where I was at I would push as to give him the answer he is looking for.

There is a good chance he has 99 or TT though and likes the flop, I think if you give him enough of a reason to dislike his hand however he will let it go.

gildwulf · #5 07-13-2005, 01:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]

There is a good chance he has 99 or TT though and likes the flop, I think if you give him enough of a reason to dislike his hand however he will let it go.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my thinking.

Registrationtoo · #6 07-13-2005, 01:43 PM

player folds.

The Yugoslavian · #7 07-13-2005, 02:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Calling is no good because its inconsistent with you having any type of hand that can withstand a turn push, so he'll just open push the turn.

Pushing is just weird. You'll fold out mid PP and Axd, and he'll call you with his monsters, in whch case your outs are dead. So you can push with anything here. All you have is your impetus, but he just took this from you with the flop bet.

Just fold. You have nothing, its really that simple.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point of pushing is to fold out PP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good luck with that. This will happen like....umm...almost never on this board unless he's got overs as well. This surely could be the case but won't be very often.

You possibly could call if you were OOP and stuff the turn....but since you're not, calling is most likely quite bad as you get a handful of chips thrown in your face almost all of the time and need to hit your A or K (and 2 of them may give villian a flush) to continue. I'm not a big fan of commiting more chips here to what's likely a lost cause.

Yugoslav

ilya · #8 07-13-2005, 03:41 PM

If you push he'll just put you on a flush draw so he can call with his medium pair. Just fold.

Irieguy · #9 07-13-2005, 04:00 PM

The problem with this hand starts with the preflop raise. It's too large. You want to leave yourself more room to play post flop with a hand like AK suited. MP1 is likely going to call any reasonable raise, and it doesn't matter that much if the blinds fold or call because your hand is so strong and plays well from late position regardless of whether you have 1 or 3 opponents. The hand would play better if you raised to some amount less than 100 chips.

With a smaller pot, your opponent will not be as interested in merely taking it down with a flop bet, and he will likely play more transparently. This will allow you to control the hand and the size of the pot. You might even be able to show down ace-high as a winner. In any case, you are likely to be able to see the turn with a good handle on things.

Under the circumstances you describe, folding the flop is the best you can do. This hand is a nice illustration of why you should not overplay AK preflop early in a SNG: you wind up with marginal flop decisions for big pots holding a hand that likes to see 5 cards.

Irieguy

microbet · #10 07-13-2005, 04:05 PM

I fold.

Those who put him on 99 or TT - how are you so good at putting him on a hand?

Here's what I put him on: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, 55, AK, AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, maybe Axd, maybe KQ.

Which of these hands don't you think it could be, and why?