AKo 5/10 Full Tough Flop Decision

[sthief09]

Hero (UTG+1) raises with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], MP2 calls, Button calls, SB 3-bet, Hero caps, everyoen calls

Flop (4 ways, 17 SB): 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets, Hero calls, MP2 calls, Button raises (leaving him with $4), SB 3-bets putting Button all in.

I cap, plannign to check the turn if he checks and fold to a river bet unless i connect

k? what do we think of the first flop call at 18-1. I had no read on anyone

[TStoneMBD]

i think raising the flop is better than calling, ESPECIALLY if the sb is passive enough to check a good amount of pairs to you on the turn.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
i think raising the flop is better than calling, ESPECIALLY if the sb is passive enough to check a good amount of pairs to you on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]


I just didn't think raising the flop would accomplish anything. they're still getting like 10-1. in a smaller pot I agree.

[Chris Dow]

FWIW, I agree with TStone about raising the flop if sb will check the turn to you like, ever. I'd be using monster pot philosophy here and like you mentioned later you'd kinda like to get to that river. On a side note, though, I really do like how you change your approach midway through the hand and then cap the flop anyway. That was a nice move and maybe compensates for the idea of calling and trying to get to that turn for one bet. Was your line to get to the river with call call and fold ui? That's probably ok here if there isn't a chance to get sb to slow down on the turn.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

first...
[ QUOTE ]
k? what do we think of the first flop call at 18-1. I had no read on anyone

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to see more cards given the pot size. When you cap preflop and he leads into you, you're up against

JJ 6 times for 6 outs
QQ 6 times for 6 outs
KK 3 times for 3 outs
AA 3 times for 0 outs

Given that 2/3 of the time you'll have 6 outs and 1/3 of the time you'll have 1.5 outs giving you 4.5 weighted outs folding would be bad. And given the aggression SB has shown even if we skew it more favorably to AA, KK, I cant imagine you having any less than 2.5 weighted outs here.

So anyways back to the flop cap...
You could have raised the flop, but that does nothing for you. Given how hard SB is playing his hand you're likely to get 3-bet a good amount of time. So call and see is fine.

When it comes back to you for two more bets, you have a decision to either call two cold or cap. Couple of questions, how likely is it for MP2 to fold for 3 bets cold? I think its fairly likely and thus can give you the button a good amount of times, but if he does call 3 bets cold how often will he bet the turn if checked to, because if he does then your plan failed miserably, but that is the more unlikely case IMO.

so the pot is laying you either 25-2 or 26-3 depending if want to call or cap. However, its not 25-2, its actually 27-4 because SB will lead into you 100% of the time here if you just call, but if you cap here QQ and JJ *should* slow down and check to you and KK should often enough as well, even AA might too fearing you have a set or something. So suppose you do cap, using the same logic in his hand breakdown, 2/3 of the time (QQ,JJ) he'll check to you 90% of the time, and 1/6 of the time (KK) lets say he checks 70% of the time and 1/6 of the time (AA) he may check 50% of the time. I pulled these numbers out of the air, but I'm sure you understand what I'm saying.

Also of important note, I'd like to point out again how likely is it MP2 will fold if you cap vs when you just call because he may steal the pot away from you an annoying amount of times when you turn an Ace but he rivers a set he would have folding on the flop or he turns a set and leaves you drawing dead when you would have hit an Ace on the river. blah blah blah.

So yeah, cap the flop = expert play.

[MarkL444]

wonderful post [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
SB will lead into you 100% of the time here if you just call, but if you cap here QQ and JJ *should* slow down and check to you and KK should often enough as well, even AA might too fearing you have a set or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

Josh raised and capped PF. Why would SB possibly think that an 853r flop hit Josh?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

because villian may be a donk or think that josh is a donk and capable of capping with 88.

also theres a chance that AA could go for a checkraise on the turn.

also i'm saying QQ and JJ should slow down here after all that action regardless of the board. and KK slows down a good amount of time fearing AA.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
because villian may be a donk or think that josh is a donk and capable of capping with 88.

also theres a chance that AA could go for a checkraise on the turn.

also i'm saying QQ and JJ should slow down here after all that action regardless of the board. and KK slows down a good amount of time fearing AA.

[/ QUOTE ]


if only things worked out how they should [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] he had 99 and bet the turn. I had made the pot so big I had to call the turn. then he checked the river. he owned me [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[oreogod]

Christ, he had 99 and still bet the turn? With all the action you would think that he would give a little thought to being beat. I dont know who it was, but unless for whatever reason he got a good read -- I cant see betting out on the turn unless he knows exactly what you are doing. True no overcards on the flop, but still he should take the foot off the pedal a little and give some respect. I mean he could be up against AA-TT.

Seems like a good way to lose money playing 99 like that, most times anyway. Maybe his call button was broken and had to make due.