EV questiong vs Common Sense

arod15 · #1 05-10-2005, 04:06 PM

I'm not too good at calculating EV but common sense told me to fold. Here is the Hand. Hero is in the BB with J10Hearts. It is fairly early in the tourney but Hero is a huge chip lead with 11K (blind 25-50)(tournament started at 1,500$ Got aces 2 and queens knocked out 4 people). Person UG goes all in for 400 chips. UG+2 calls UG+5 goes all in for 1500 2 callers who are also all in (yes it is a rebuy obviously). Total pot is $4875. It would cost Hero 1,450 to call. Is it a good play given to total equity in the pot and the amount of chips? Its basically going to cost me 13% of my chips. If i hit id have enough amo to make the final table easy (double addon at the end). It is a 5 table tourney and rebuys are over in 10 min so its early. I folded. But a lot of people say it was worth the call. Was i too tight? I figure my J10 was not dominated, but i assume a lot of high cards were taken so getting a straight would be hard. Comments?

LuvDemNutz · #2 05-10-2005, 04:10 PM

Is anyone in the hand (besides you) not all in?

arod15 · #3 05-10-2005, 04:15 PM

Nope, everyone was all in. So all i could lose was 1600 ish. I forget the exact numbers. But they are all close approx.

schwza · #4 05-10-2005, 04:21 PM

this has gotta be a fold.

Sluss · #5 05-10-2005, 04:30 PM

This would be a great question for Gavin since he has become "King of the Re-Buys" too bad he is busy right now with that silly PPT.

My instict says fold, but math wise this is a call right? Even if you lose you are still the chip leader. And this is going to add alot of chips to your table for you to pick up in the post re-buy phase.

MrLob · #6 05-10-2005, 05:14 PM

If I tracked all the calling right it appears there are 5 people all in. If that is the case any reasonable range of hands for the group is going to put you at about 10-15% to win. You're only getting about 3.5 to 1 on your money, so from an EV standpoint the play is a fold IMO. I fold this, but I think many people with a big chip lead like yours would look to gamble on this because of its very limited downside.