Back on track... (long and probably boring)

[rigoletto]

My 300BB downswing thread has stirred a lot of emotion and some (not enough) interesting discussion, but the focus has been on the math issue which was not my original intent. I know that I contributed to this myself by being caught up in the discussion and for that I'm sorry.

One interesting aspect about this discussion is some posters need to put me down, saying that it is sad that I'm a winning player etc. (how do they know by the way?). I don't blame them for this. This board is filled with tough love and I think the sometimes very heated discussions are a common result of highly competent and competitive people debatting issues that are very close to them. You all know that I can be as beligurant (sorry for spelling) and unfair as the next guy. I do however think that the egos and the attention to detail and correct mathematical definitions sometimes (actually often) gets in the way of the big picture.

I originally posted because I thought that Ray's comment's on the issue was more valuable than anything else offered on the subject. It was actually first introduced by J.A. Sucker a couple of months ago. He made a post about the best advice he had ever gotten and it (not surprisingly) came from Ray Zee, and was something along the lines of: get away from games when you are not a winner and seek out the games where you win. I'm sorry for the inadequate paraphrasing, maybe someone can dig up the original thread?

We discuss a lot of strategy and tactics in this forum. Handhistories are turned upside down to decide on the best play. This is all well and good for a number of posters (probably the majority). But I also find that we have hands posted from good high limit players where it is virtually impossible to say anything sensible because all the best posters will give a standard line but can't take into account all the numerous little things that makes up a hand between accomplished players. Any debate is likely to concern a miniscule fraction of EV and doesn't really do much to improve our game.

At the same time we hear players talk about big swings and big loosing streaks. Paluka moves down because of swings mainly due to poor game selection (according to himself) and others are expressing the same sentiments. Mike I thinks it takes an infinate amount of hands to determine your winrate and El Diablo (the artist formerly known as...) assure us that we can easily loose back hundreds of thousand dollars in winnings.

What can I really teach you (and you teach me) about semibluffing on the turn and value raising the river - nothing. There is a group of accomplished players at this forum who are beyond learning this (OK, I might still need some polishing) and for whom the biggest challenge is to be consistant. Got recently posted about a call he made with a draw on a paired board even though he knew it was a loosing play and berated himself for not being able to fold. I think these are the valuable issues for us to discuss.

None of us should accept a 300BB downswing - no matter the statistics - as long as it is more likely to be a product of tilt, poor game selection or deteriation of our game than a statisticcally expected occurance. What Ray is telling us is that you will often be at a point where the game you are in (or the game you play compared to the one you are in) matters so much more than your technical ability to play poker. This is true for every player, but I think it becomes more relevant when you reach the level of playing the highest games.

'So what!' you might say: 'I realized this a long time ago. I even read and agreed with J.A. Suckers post.'. Well I think the defense of 300BB downswing as something 'to be expected' proves a lot of you wrong. The truth of the matter is that no one experiencing a 300BB downswing can tell if they are playing optimally or not. And when you are vehemently (sorry for spelling) defending your downswing as 'expected' you are likely ignoring the factors that have more impact on your game than anything else: tilt, poor game selection and suboptimal play for current conditions.

If this forum is to be a help, also to players who master all the technical poker skills. We should somehow be able to tell Paluka that he needs to change his game, before he has to realize this himself to late. I don't know exactly how to do this. But I think examining our options for working on this will prove much more fruitfull than discussing my limited math skills.

[psyduck]

Not to be a dick or anything, but why a new thread for this?

[AceHigh]

Have you moved to the Party 30/60 games from the old 15/30?

If so, the 30/60 game is a lot different than the old 15/30 and you probably need to adapt your game to the changes.

[CardSharpCook]

Nice post. I think we are all on the same page with this 300BB downswing theory now. Sumerizes as, "yes, it can happen to skilled player, but more often than not, there is a flaw in your game. We should help posters identify the flaws before telling them, 'don't worry, it happens.'"

CSC

[ggbman]

Rigoletto, one of the thingsi respect about you is that you can take the "hard love" as you put. It's nice that you can brush off some of the attacks people made, as i feel far too many posters here get over-excited when they don't agree with a post, including some very well respected posters here. I thought your OP about the downswings didn't encompass how much variance there is in the game, but as everyone began to clarify their position, i think it ended up being a reasonable productive thread.

Gabe

[brick]

The best advice I've ever gotten