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#1
10-21-2005, 09:20 PM
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Bet this river?
Villain sat down 1 hand ago and I've never seen him before. I felt there was a chance villain was on the club draw but hit that 4 and was trying to price himself in for the river. If he hit the 4, I'm not winning any more and if he was on a draw without it, he's not calling. Then again, maybe he has 99 or something and will call (he could even have JJ/QQ and be playing tight).
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter Hero ($258.90) MP ($283.55) CO ($68.65) Button ($368.90) SB ($102.09) BB ($203.62) Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1. <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls $6. Flop: ($17) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, BB calls $12. Turn: ($41) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $35</font>, BB calls $30. River: ($111) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> BB checks, Hero?? 
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#3
10-21-2005, 09:30 PM
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Re: Bet this river?
[ QUOTE ]
$75 Really scared of one unlikely hand that backdoored trips? [/ QUOTE ] No, he's scared of a CR. And what hand is calling 75 here? Check behind. -T
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#4
10-21-2005, 09:32 PM
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Re: Bet this river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] $75 Really scared of one unlikely hand that backdoored trips? [/ QUOTE ] No, he's scared of a CR. And what worse hand is calling 75 here? Check behind. -T [/ QUOTE ] This was essentially my thinking but I'm not sure its correct.
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#5
10-21-2005, 09:34 PM
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Re: Bet this river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] $75 Really scared of one unlikely hand that backdoored trips? [/ QUOTE ] No, he's scared of a CR. And what worse hand is calling 75 here? Check behind. -T [/ QUOTE ] This was essentially my thinking but I'm not sure its correct. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I meant "what worse hand", but I didn't feel the need to clarify for you. I think this is fine thinking, but obviously it depends on your read of villain. Just how bad is he? -T
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#6
10-21-2005, 09:36 PM
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Re: Bet this river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] $75 Really scared of one unlikely hand that backdoored trips? [/ QUOTE ] No, he's scared of a CR. And what worse hand is calling 75 here? Check behind. -T [/ QUOTE ] This was essentially my thinking but I'm not sure its correct. [/ QUOTE ] You are giving these monkeys way too much credit.
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#7
10-21-2005, 09:38 PM
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Re: Bet this river?
Should I infer from this you think 98s/A8s are calling a river bet then? What other hands do you feel play this way and call on the river? (keeping in mind that villain is totally unknwon at this point)
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#8
10-21-2005, 09:38 PM
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Re: Bet this river?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] $75 Really scared of one unlikely hand that backdoored trips? [/ QUOTE ] No, he's scared of a CR. And what worse hand is calling 75 here? Check behind. -T [/ QUOTE ] This was essentially my thinking but I'm not sure its correct. [/ QUOTE ] You are giving these monkeys way too much credit. [/ QUOTE ] Care to explain then? I think you are giving his hand too much credit. He is ahead of 99, and few other logically played hands. And he can't call a CR here. What value is there in betting this? -T
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#9
10-21-2005, 09:39 PM
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Re: Bet this river?
I'm fine with checking...if it turns out he flopped a set, then you'll be happy you didn't bet the river. If it turns out you had him beat the whole way, then you'll still be happy with your profit.
What worries me most is that he check-called the turn...check the river, and be happy with whatever the outcome
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#10
10-21-2005, 09:44 PM
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Re: Bet this river?
I might not have the action 100% correct, but a similar hand just happened on live at the bike. 10/20 game.
Think it was straddled pot, 6 players to flop, (240) Flop 326, two clubs. Checked to 99, bets pot. Turn 2. 500, call. River 10 non club. 700, call. Q3o loses. This is what I assume I'm up against until I see otherwise.
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