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#21
10-21-2005, 04:51 PM
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Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
Phil will win a big tournament once the donkfest is over (like someone said earlier in this thread). I assume that would be in 5 years (in 3 year the pokerfad will be dead, and each year after the fields decrease in big tournaments by about 200 players)
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#22
10-21-2005, 07:40 PM
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Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Get yourself in enough positions is a big tourney where even your 'only' a 2-1 favorite for all your chips with a field of 1000+, your not winning that tourney. [/ QUOTE ] I imagine that If I constantly got all my money in as a 2-1 favorite I would win so many tournies it would be ridiculous. [/ QUOTE ] Get all your money in as a 2-1 favorite 12 times and you win them all less than one percent of the time. The key methinks is to get SOME of your money in as a favorite. [/ QUOTE ] I think it's already been posted but obviously I would not always be covered by my opponent, at least not after the first few times I double up anyways. I think passing up opportunities to get your money in as a 2-1 favorite because it's risking your tournament is just incredibly weak tight. I'll stand by my statement that I would be a ridiculous winner if I got the money in every time I had a 2-1 edge.
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#23
10-21-2005, 07:54 PM
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Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Get yourself in enough positions is a big tourney where even your 'only' a 2-1 favorite for all your chips with a field of 1000+, your not winning that tourney. [/ QUOTE ] I imagine that If I constantly got all my money in as a 2-1 favorite I would win so many tournies it would be ridiculous. [/ QUOTE ] Get all your money in as a 2-1 favorite 12 times and you win them all less than one percent of the time. The key methinks is to get SOME of your money in as a favorite. [/ QUOTE ] I think it's already been posted but obviously I would not always be covered by my opponent, at least not after the first few times I double up anyways. I think passing up opportunities to get your money in as a 2-1 favorite because it's risking your tournament is just incredibly weak tight. I'll stand by my statement that I would be a ridiculous winner if I got the money in every time I had a 2-1 edge. [/ QUOTE ] Even if you were covered each time you got your money in you'd still be doing extremely well. Hypothetically if you only bet when you were a 2:1 favorite, always went all-in, were always called by a equal-sized stack, and could never tie, you would need to win 10 straight all-ins to win a 1,024 person tournament. You'd only have a 1.7% chance of winning these all-ins. However, that would mean you'd be about 17.8x more likely than the average person to win the tournament (the average person would have a 1/1024 chance as opposed to you with a 1/57 chance). Even if you only placed first and never were in the money other than winning, you'd have a 7.1x tournament equity (assuming first is 40%). Any tournament pro would take those numbers, even Phil Hellmuth. But even Phil isn't that good.
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#24
10-21-2005, 09:57 PM
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Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
All i know is after watching the wsop on espn last tuesday. I'm kinda annoyed by phil. I've never seen anyone bitch and complain like he does. He needs to get over himself. I mean you never see ivey go crazy like that when he gets scooped. If I was sittin at that table I would have told him to shut the f* up and play. IT was funny that he was complaining so bad about that guy with kj... because right before that they showed a piece where phil was saying he hates listening to people who complain about their bad beats. But I think your right. He wont be winning anymore more world series anytime soon.
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#25
10-21-2005, 10:07 PM
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Even when HE is the DOG ...
Whether Phil wins another big tourney or not, one thing I really love about him ...
He pushes all in with A7o. He gets called by the big blind who has 88. The 88 holds up. Phil walks away from the table complaining to the crowd and his wife that the "idiot big blind" called all of his money off with 88. Gee Phil, the player did have the better hand, right?
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#26
10-21-2005, 11:27 PM
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Re: Even when HE is the DOG ...
[ QUOTE ]
Whether Phil wins another big tourney or not, one thing I really love about him ... He pushes all in with A7o. He gets called by the big blind who has 88. The 88 holds up. Phil walks away from the table complaining to the crowd and his wife that the "idiot big blind" called all of his money off with 88. Gee Phil, the player did have the better hand, right? [/ QUOTE ] I don't remember this one. Are you talking about this year's WSOP?
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#27
10-22-2005, 12:15 AM
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Re: Even when HE is the DOG ...
Sounds like he's talking about the AQ vs. 77
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#28
10-24-2005, 12:20 AM
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Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
The point is stupid...I was in a Party tourney once where I was trash talking everybody, not quite as an 'experiment' but a lot of people were getting pissed off at me. I *think* this caused some people to call my all ins with marginal hands, because they wanted to take me out. I won the tourney because of this. I think if people just want to take Phil out and want to put themselves at a disadvantage, Phil has an even greater chance of winning.
I have hope for him though [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
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#29
10-24-2005, 10:39 AM
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Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
[ QUOTE ]
Phil will win a big tournament once the donkfest is over (like someone said earlier in this thread). I assume that would be in 5 years (in 3 year the pokerfad will be dead, and each year after the fields decrease in big tournaments by about 200 players) [/ QUOTE ] How will the stock market do in five years?
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