Texas Holdem Hand

PREFLOP: With just one limper coming in front of you, I would fold 22 since you still have no idea if you will get the multiway actaion necessary for this hand to be profitable.

FLOP: Capping with your set looks fine. An alternative line would be to just call the BB's 3 bet with the intention of raising the turn.

TURN: This is where I dont like your play. When the BB leads out the turn you should not freeze up here and call, you should raise, you still have a guy behind you to worry about, and its very important in this large pot to do everything you can to protect your hand. If the Button has QJ,QT,KQ,AQ, the pot is now large enough where you would want to make him fold correctly or call incorrectly with these hands. I realize that the Button may never fold QJ or AQ if he has it but you can still force him to call incorrectly which is still +EV for you, but if youre turn raise makes him lay down a KQ or QT type hand this would be wonderful for your hand.

About you freezing up on the turn and just calling...I understand that this board is pretty scary but if you assume that the BB would play AA,QQ,JJ,AQ, and QJs the same way preflop+flop+turn, you are still an 11-9 favorite over the BB's range. Given the size of this pot, you should be willing to raise this turn even if you were an underdog to the BB's range to protect your hand the times it is good, but the fact that you are still a 11-9 favorite is more the reason you should be popping this turn.

OK, now given the way you played it, should you call the turn 3 bet? You are getting 9-1 odds to call this 3 bet and youre not closing the action. I still cant see folding here. If its 2 pair vs a straight you still have 4 outs, and youre almost getting the right price. IF its AQ vs QJ then you have the best hand and youre a big favorite to win this large pot. I know you could easily be drawing to 1 out, but this pot is large enough where you have to call IMO. There are still other illogical scenarios like AK vs AJ or AJ vs AQ, or AJ vs QJ, that you can hope for also.

Also, I assumed that the Aggro player was the BB and the solid player was the Button.

[Steve Giufre]

[ QUOTE ]
can the button have Th9h here?

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On the flop I put him on KT or 109. I cant see him taking all that heat with just a Q, and I think he knows better than to smooth call the flop with QJ. Once he raised the turn, I was really more less thinking K10 and not much else, and the BB should know this, which is what makes his turn three bet even more scary.

Great responses so far I think. I am curious to hear more about the first decision on the turn, call VS raise.

[Steve Giufre]

I thought the decision on the turn was close. I did think the button's most likely hands was probably K10, but 109 was a defintely possiblity, as well as a small chance he has something weird and random. But it sure looks like some sort of draw to the nuts. Once the BB can lead at that card, Im sorta with Stox and I put him JJ, QQ, AA, but at this point I think AQ is still a definite possibility. I thought about raising right there, but I thought calling might be better. Since there is a pretty good chance the button has just made the nuts, and the BB might get over agrro with a set on turn, I thought calling might allow me to get away from the hand if it got too ugly. If I raise that turn, the button is gonna three bet, the BB is gonna just call with the hands in his range, and I'm gonna end up putting in three bets on the turn and maybe one on the river out of spite, while drawing to one out a fair amount of the time.

Anyway I could be convinced otherwise, but calling felt right. I can give the BB a worse price if he has 109 by raising, but he is still coming along regardless of wether or not I raise. Since the bb has JJ QQ AA or AQ, (I think), after he leads the turn, I cant see how just calling is that wrong since there is also a good chance the button just made the nuts.

[andyfox]

Sure seems like your in, at best, second place on the turn, and you might be drawing to a one-outer. I agree with your "scary" characterizaton of the BB's actions, especially considering he bet into your flop cap when an ace came. An ace comes on the turn and a guy still bets after there's been a lot of flop action, and my experience is that he's either got snow or a hand where he wants to be raised.

Now you see why I don't (hardly ever) play deuces. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Steve Giufre]

Now you see why I don't (hardly ever) play deuces. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Yeah I agree with you and others that Im taking a little bit of the worst of it limping behind there. Its just that calling is way more fun than folding. Thats gotta count for something right?

[andyfox]

Mason wrote a long time ago about not worrying about losing set over set because it just doesn't happen often enough to worry about. Which if true. But it will happen more often, obviously, if you're playing a lot of small pairs, especially if you cold call with them. (I know you didn't do that here.)

Anyway, tough spot you're in here. I see the logic of those who say raise the turn first time around to protect your hand, but when I think there's a good chance I'm behind, and maybe drawing virtually dead, I just don't see the sense of raising to "protect." I saw the analysis that said you were 11:9 to have BB beat, but that's a strictly mathematical analysis; since he's firing and re-firing the odds he has you beat, in my estimation, go way up. Not to mention it sure looks like the other guy has a straight.

[Steve Giufre]

[ QUOTE ]
Mason wrote a long time ago about not worrying about losing set over set because it just doesn't happen often enough to worry about. Which if true. But it will happen more often, obviously, if you're playing a lot of small pairs, especially if you cold call with them. (I know you didn't do that here.)

Anyway, tough spot you're in here. I see the logic of those who say raise the turn first time around to protect your hand, but when I think there's a good chance I'm behind, and maybe drawing virtually dead, I just don't see the sense of raising to "protect." I saw the analysis that said you were 11:9 to have BB beat, but that's a strictly mathematical analysis; since he's firing and re-firing the odds he has you beat, in my estimation, go way up. Not to mention it sure looks like the other guy has a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the post Andy. Your thinking is pretty similar to mine.

[ QUOTE ]
Mason wrote a long time ago about not worrying about losing set over set because it just doesn't happen often enough to worry about. Which if true. But it will happen more often, obviously, if you're playing a lot of small pairs, especially if you cold call with them. (I know you didn't do that here.)

Anyway, tough spot you're in here. I see the logic of those who say raise the turn first time around to protect your hand, but when I think there's a good chance I'm behind, and maybe drawing virtually dead, I just don't see the sense of raising to "protect." I saw the analysis that said you were 11:9 to have BB beat, but that's a strictly mathematical analysis; since he's firing and re-firing the odds he has you beat, in my estimation, go way up. Not to mention it sure looks like the other guy has a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]
Im the one that came up with the 11:9 figure, and I just wanted to point out to you that this number is not "strictly mathematical", in fact this figure is based almost purely on logic. The only hands I have in the villain's range that constitute this number are the hands that I think the villain would logically play this way, AQ,AA,QQ,JJ,QJs. I think if you look at the action preflop+flop by this aggresive player you will see that there is a good chance he would play all these holdings the exact same way. So based on logic and mathematics, the hero is a small favorite to have the best hand which is why I think raising is the correct move on the turn since at this point in the hand the hero didnt know the guy behind him had a likely straight.

[andyfox]

Thanks. I'd discount Q-Js somewhat, since most players are more likely to knuckle, than raise, preflop with this hand, and the turn ace might slow Q-J down, especially out of position again two opponents, one of whom capped the flop.

When I said "strictly mathematical," I didn't mean to imply that you hadn't considered what hands BB was likely to have given the action. (Your analyses are unfailingly well-thought out and instructive.) A guy keeps betting like this I usually put greater emphasis on him having a great hand rather than a very good one. But no doubt BB wouldn't put either of his opponents on a set, given that neither of them raised pre-flop and he might figure Steve would slow play a set of 2s. And guys just don't put other guys on sets of deuces. He'd have reason to believe A-Q was the best hand, putting Steve on Q-J.

Your point, as usual, is well taken.

[DcifrThs]

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i get the feeling aggro=BB but i'm not sure

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i can almost guarantee you that bb=thinking solid 19/10 otherwise there wouldn't be a problem...

as to the hand, AQ is the only hand you beat, but you definately have the button beat. ive folded a set to this action 2 times that i can remember but the guys stats were like 15/9/1 and 17/10/1...

here i think is a fold not because of what the bb has, but what the button's most likely hand is (KT) but lets look at some bb vs. stevieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee math

AQ=9
AA=6
QQ=6
JJ=6

your odds=18:2 immediate, 21:3 efffective assuming button doesn't do anything else but go to a showdown right now. so we're looking at 7:1...its 2:1 you're ahead of button using straight math, if bb only raises AQs here instead of AQ its still just 4.5:1 and looks like its a call down.

the problem here is a few things can happen (besides of course the 1/44 event we'd all love to ocurr)
1)the button has both of you drawing right now

1a) you get there (J pairs) and you have to call again

1b) you dont get there and its ANOTHER 2 bets to you

2) button caps and you get 20:4 immediate on the turn and its another bet or 2 to you on river so 22:5 at the best case scenario after a cap (which is very unlikely to happen)

3) you fold the best hand (which has 2 ways of looking at its costs...the difference between your would have been win and the expectation you had given your estimates of odds...and your true odds*potsize - your effective odds*potsize where true odds is the actual known distribution of each player's hand at the moment you have to call- which cannot be truly known)

given all this, i an argument can be made for calling the bb...but the button can still cap and personally i think button has you drawing to unknown cards... id fold here in real time assuming 19/10 is bb and button is 28/15

Barron