1st hand Empire $100, TPTK

[ansky451]

Lets assume for a second this is a thinking opponent.

He puts you on 1) AK, or 2) JJ (or tens or a similar hand)

This bet then, makes very little sense. If he had a hand better than those hands, he probably doesn't think you call a pot bet, which leads me to beleive he is bluffing. He would be more likely to try to get value out of JJ by betting 1/2-2/3 pot I think. One possible hand that he would overbet I think, is some backdoor flush- since it is so disguised. He expects to get paid off with it because its nearly impossible to put him on it. Therefore, I think a call is best here, since he probably is bluffing anyway.

Suppose he is a donk- (much more likely)

He is a donk but he still remembers the action. This means if he has a piece, I don't think he is folding anything. You checked the turn, and he will probably therefore lose any respect for your hand- and call with anything reasonable. If he is bluffing and you raise, then it doesn't matter. If he has a marginal hand like JQ, he is calling. However despite all this, I have sort of decided mid paragraph, that a call is best. I can see this being a set, a lot of the time. The large river is usually a hand that is killing you (set, flush), or a bluff. Either way, we are better off just calling. I just don't see him making such a big bet with a weaker queen.

[schwza]

good post.... any thoughts on the turn?

[Mr_Oog]

Personally I like the turn check. I agree that it is unlikely your opponent will have many outs and inducing a bluff with a check on the turn is a good play. As always I could be wrong, but I like it in this case on this board.

That said you are setting up a river call, not a push. I think there is no value in the push as hands you beat will fold and hands you lose to (however unlikely) will call. In other words, I think villain gets away from 99 on the river push (if he decided to bet this large on the river in the first place). This would be a mistake by villain, but his large river bet is either scared (and trying to push you out) or strong. Neither of these conditions pay you off.

-Mike

[Sam T.]

I probably would have played it just as you did, including the push on the river. But I'm also convinced that a call is the better play...

I don't mind the turn check at all, for the reasons you cite. I'm not going to worry too about a flush I'm heads-up, and if he hits is two-outer, well, Merry Christmas. (I actually played a hand very similar to this a few weeks back - villain hit his two outer, rivering trip fives.)

In any case, the risk of a free card is, I think, worth the reward in a river bet you can get from him.

Sam

[Mr_Oog]

One other thought is how much to bet if villain checks the river. Obviously a value bet would be called for, perhaps 300 and fold to a CR push?

-Mike

[prana]

I like checking here also sometimes. I actually was going to post a few months ago about how many bluffs I induce by doing this but never got around to it I guess. I don't normally play $100's but it has worked well for me, and if they check the river it's common to get called when I bet the river because they think I am trying to buy.

[gergery]

I’d have flat called the river. I expect to be ahead and have chips pushed to me here. But the “goodness” difference between 1600 to 2000 is significantly less than the “badness” difference between 400 and 0. (Particularly at Empire where play is deep and donkeys will call big raises OOP with hands like 43s)

If you refer to ericicecream’s WOTMOG post from a couple weeks ago, your par value is maybe 2x here, so your T1000 stack is worth $200 bucks. So losing T400 of that costs you $80. a random opponents T1000 stack is then worth ~$89, so his T400 is worth ~$22. So putting an add’l T400 at risk with your decision on the river really is risking $80 to win $22 in equity here (or do your own math with how good you think you are, and adjust slightly for value of bigstack)

SO, you need to be something like 80% sure you’ll win in the times THAT YOU ARE CALLED to make your push a good play here.

Sure he’ll have KQ/QJ (dealt 16 ways) some of the time, but he’ll also have 55/22 (dealt 12 ways), so you’re not a big favorite (those hands seem most likely). Sometimes he’ll have air, but sometimes he’ll have weird twopair, backdoor flush hands. So maybe you’re ahead 60% of the time that you push. But that isn’t enough, imho.

-g

[gergery]

math error..should be 80 vs. 38 or so, but you get the idea

-g

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
good post.... any thoughts on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mind it, but I wouldn't do it. Generally when I have no reads I don't get toooo tricky (I'm always tricky [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) Against certain opponents I do this if I think he'll try a bluff on the river. But the problem with that- on this board is, there are no draws he could have called the flop with, that he can miss on the river and then bluff. He called because he has a piece- or because hes testing you. I think chances are you gain more value by firing multiple times, and not slowing down.

I also sometimes would bet a second barrel here (very often) with AK, so its kind of bad for shania if I also check behind with top pair. Then again, shania doesn't matter too much in donk-saturated tournament, and party 100s arent too tough.