Bubble hand with 10s on the button($55)

[redrooski24]

I'm not much of an ICM guy but this one seemed like a fold. I've really been struggling with my bubble play recently(getting stupidly aggro against big stacks) and am just trying to make sure I'm back on the right track.

***** Hand History for Game 3001580306 *****
200/400 TOURNEY TEXAS HOLD'EM GAME TABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 17235757) - TUE NOV 08 04:31:16 EST 2005
Table Table 67017 (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: SMELLY_FISH (1370)
Seat 2: glibglub (3875)
Seat 5: krasni24 (2415)
Seat 6: LowBillMill (2340)
LowBillMill posts small blind (100)
SMELLY_FISH posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to krasni24 [ Td, Ts ]
glibglub raises (600) to 600
krasni24 folds.
LowBillMill folds.
SMELLY_FISH folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: 900
SMELLY_FISH balance 1170, lost 200 (folded)
glibglub balance 4175, bet 600, collected 900, net +300
krasni24 balance 2415, didn't bet (folded)
LowBillMill balance 2240, lost 100 (folded)

Also, how do I get hands I dig up from PT to work in the hand converter? Thanks.

[HesseJam]

These are exactly the situations I have to analyze more with SNGPT! I do not have it here at work.

I guess, barring any screaming reads, it's a fold.

[HesseJam]

Wait, he did not push! So, he could fold on a push! Not very likely but still possible. I think this makes it very read dependent (does he usuall know what he is doing?, does he seem to know about when it is better to push than to bet?). It might be a push, after all.

[tigerite]

Sure if he open pushed I'd probably fold.. that would be a no-brainer. I would say he needs to fold around 25% of the time given his likely range - but that's a guesstimate and I'll do the maths properly later.

[Vee Quiva]

According to the earlier math on Chip EV and then using ICM to convert to $EV I got the following.

With original raiser playing top 10% of hands:
80% Fold 20% call
$EV goes up .0023

With 50% fold
$EV goes down -.0053

I think the raising range is a little tight so I tried the top 20% of hands. Then 10-10 is a winner 61% of the time.

Fold 80% Call 20%
$EV goes up .0342

Fold 50%
$EV goes up .0116

So in conclusion, the looser the standards for the original raiser, the better idea it is to push. The more likely the original raiser is to call the reraise, the worse your decision is.

I think I would normally reraise all in unless I had a really strong read that the original raiser is extremely tight.

[tigerite]

I'd at the very least call. You should have a fair bit of FE here if you push too. Depends on reads, though. But TT on the bubble is huge and the small stack still has 6bb, so is nowhere near out of it yet.

[redrooski24]

What's this SNGPT people are always talking about here? Some PT addon or what?

[HesseJam]

SitnGo Power Tools. You need to buy it from Eastbay. It's on the pricy side but well worth it (provided you really use it to study scenarios [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]).

Pricey side?

It's about 1.2 buyins.

[HesseJam]

Yeah, yeah. Compared to PT or to HoH I+II it is pricey. But I well understand why it has to be a bit more (because it is not a mass product).