Tricky Hand for HUSH Final Days

[Jeff W]

Raise the flop.

Edit: I mis-stoved earlier and included too many KQ combinations. I think you should still check river though because you can get SB to subsidize your pot and it seems unlikely that a strong pair is checking behind. I like a checkraise though, because our equity is actually ~63% in my estimation:

Board: 4d 9h Td 9d Jh
equity (%)
37.5% { TT+, 44, AdJd, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, KcQd, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQd, KsQd, QJo }
62.5% { Kd9s }

So, even if he only 3-bets a better hand and you always pay off it's correct to checkraise because of SB's contribution. OTOH, if you think he's checking behind a lot because the 9d is a scare card, then I like your bet-fold.

[Jeff W]

Also, I think it's important to note that SB is rarely going to have a better hand here, but his presence does make the set combinations for Mr. 35/25/1.5 less likely. When an unknown(read: someone who isn't a regular) at 20/40 plays a hand like this, most of the time they are going to be completely full of [censored].

[Lmn55d]

Jeff I noticed you included some hands containing the K of diamonds in your range for button. Hero holds the K of diamonds.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
Jeff I noticed you included some hands containing the K of diamonds in your range for button. Hero holds the K of diamonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I give up. You win, pokerstove. I know better than to post this early in the morning.

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Jeff I noticed you included some hands containing the K of diamonds in your range for button. Hero holds the K of diamonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I give up. You win, pokerstove. I know better than to post this early in the morning.

[/ QUOTE ]

PokerStove is smart enough not to deal with duplicate cards properly:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
44 games 0.005 secs 8,800 games/sec

Board: 7c 4s 3d 8h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 11.3636 % 11.36% 00.00% { Ad7s }
Hand 2: 88.6364 % 88.64% 00.00% { KdKs }
</pre><hr />

Now add a hand with a dead card in it, and the results are identical:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
44 games 0.005 secs 8,800 games/sec

Board: 7c 4s 3d 8h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 11.3636 % 11.36% 00.00% { Ad7c, Ad7s }
Hand 2: 88.6364 % 88.64% 00.00% { KdKs }
</pre><hr />

[Danenania]

River check/call or checkraise is an interesting approach. Given everything we know about this player how likely do we think it is that he bets an overpair or decent pair/two pair like QT/AT/AJ/KJ/JT/etc. on this river? I mean is there any way my hand could possibly look more like a flush draw give then way it was played? On the other hand SB is sitting there looking sooo likely to call with a bad hand so it may be tough for him not to bet. Can we figure out what percentage he has to be betting an overpair to make betting, check/calling, or check/raising best? In some ways SB's presence makes me want to bet even more since if he has a made hand he'll probably overcall pretty often, so I am risking more than 1 BB by checking when I'm ahead.

[Wynton]

[ QUOTE ]
is there any way my hand could possibly look more like a flush draw give then way it was played?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this the main reason you bet/fold the river? I'd feel uncomfortable folding such a big pot out of the assumption that my opponent is putting me specifically on a flush draw.

In the heat of the moment, I'd have c/c the river, mostly because there would have been too much doubt in my mind to fold.

[TStoneMBD]

definitely gotta raise this flop imo

turn i would fold because your outs are somewhat tainted, but more importantly you are risking yourself to facing 2 more bets back to you. SB is really representing a huge hand by his flop smoothcall turn bet line. it seems that he doesnt want to eliminate you from the pot even though its a draw heavy board. i think you get 3bet pretty frequently on the turn.

im unsure about the river but i trust jeff

[Chobohoya]

I know it's been said, but raise the flop.

Given the action of the actualy hand, I would say fold the turn. Your meagre outs and terrible reverse implied odds make it pretty clear in my mind.

Baron, would you mind giving more thoughts on why you call the turn?

As for the river, betting is very bad. He's going to bet any hand he would have called with, and he's going to raise you lots too. Your bet has no value, which further underscores folding the turn.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
As for the river, betting is very bad. He's going to bet any hand he would have called with, and he's going to raise you lots too. Your bet has no value, which further underscores folding the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a ridiculous statement. Of course betting has value. Button is calling with QQ-AA, AJ, AT, JT, KJ, etc. And SB is likely to call with lots of hands too. Check/calling or checkraising may have more value but there are definite merits to betting.