A more complicated all-in pot odds situation from last night's Super..

ThrillFactor · #1 02-23-2005, 06:08 PM

Late in the tourney, we're well into the money but no where near the final table yet. BB is 1000.

I have just built back up to t10000 after loosing over half my stack on just a terrible play on my part. Moral - I'm not sure that I'm thinking straight at this point. Full table, table is playing EXTREMELY TIGHT, and we haven't seen very many flops in the last 20 minutes. I had successfully stolen 2-3 hands ago, now I'm in MP1 and open to t2300 (2200-2500 was the standard steal for the table at this point)with ATo. Bad idea?

MP2 (table short-stack) goes all-in for 7000 and I have just enough time to realize I have a tough call decision when MP3 comes over the top. MP3 has me well covered. Folded to me.

I now have to call 7700 to win 2300+7000+10000=19300... about 2.5 to 1 on my call.

MP2s range has to be very broad. But MP3 should have a real hand in this situation.

Easy call or too easily dominated here?

Edit: Of course chip stacks are rounded, but I don't think the exact numbers make that big of a difference in the general concept. Consider me getting a range of 2.3-2.7 to one on my call.

willie · #2 02-23-2005, 06:12 PM

i turbo muck here....

gotta figure at least one of them for a pocket pair, and the other one for a big ace or something close

it'd be a crying call and i'd be shocked if your Aces were clean outs.....

if you called it was just wishful thinking that they both had pocket garbage

MLG · #3 02-23-2005, 06:13 PM

I like opening UTG there if the table is tight. However, after the all-in and the over all-in you are in baaad shape. Most likely you are drawing to 3 cards at best here, and it will not be uncommon for you to be drawing slim to somebody with a better A and somebody with a big pair.

Also, i don't agree that MP3's range here is all that broad if the table is tight as you described it.

All signs point to fold.

freekobe · #4 02-23-2005, 06:20 PM

What range of hands do you put MP3 on?

It is my experience, while not vast, that at this stage of the tourney, with very few crazy players left, that this is weakness. I can't imagine you being ahead of too many hands.

All aces are out, i.e. there is no way he is pushing with A9 or worse. Could he have 88 or 99? Yeah, I guess, but I highly, highly doubt it.

This is an auto-fold, imo

ThrillFactor · #5 02-23-2005, 06:24 PM

Is going for the steal with ATo a good idea in the first place though? If pushed behind me I'm force to contemplate a call where I'm most likely a little to a lot behind. And if I'm just called, can I really be happy if and ace flops?

I almost folded this preflop, and many times I do from this position. Seems like one of those times where you'd rather try this with 95o instead, that way there's no decision to be made if reraised.

MLG · #6 02-23-2005, 06:31 PM

if you keep in mind that you need better than 2:1 to call here if you get pushed in on then the steal is ok. I'm more inclined to raise in this spot because if you don't win this hand you will be in all-in or fold mode. You may go broke to A-Q if they call, but I would think your opponents would fold with AJ and push with AK the majority of the time.

edfilan · #7 02-23-2005, 06:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is going for the steal with ATo a good idea in the first place though? If pushed behind me I'm force to contemplate a call where I'm most likely a little to a lot behind. And if I'm just called, can I really be happy if and ace flops?

I almost folded this preflop, and many times I do from this position. Seems like one of those times where you'd rather try this with 95o instead, that way there's no decision to be made if reraised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since the table is ultra tight, I like the steal attempt. The only thing is that you are right on the borderline of push-or-muck territory. Perhaps a min raise is a good idea. It will look fishy to your tight opponents (you could be trapping with AA or KK), and you'll be able to get off it more easily when reraised.

That said, at 2.5:1 you definitely do not have the odds to call when you are almost certainly dominated. I'd sooner call with the 95o you mentioned.

SoBeDude · #8 02-23-2005, 07:14 PM

Personally I think you need way more than 2-1 to make that call. You're behind and more than 2-1 behind against 2 opponents. All in, ATo wins only 44% against 2 random hands. Two people pushing all in for their tourney life are certainly better hands than 'random'.

I also think the reraise is quite possibly a big pair as well. If he thinks the first bet is a steal, and the second bet is a short-stack gamble with "any ace, any king, any pair", then his all-in reraise may be a pair as low as say 88...especially if he thinks the opener will fold all but top premiums to the second all-in.

I like the play with AT initially, but ya gotta dump it. I'm not calling there.

-Scott

ThrillFactor · #9 02-23-2005, 07:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I like the play with AT initially, but ya gotta dump it. I'm not calling there.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Sums it up.

Just checking.

MP2 had A9s, MP3 had KK

MLG · #10 02-23-2005, 07:20 PM

If MP2 had A9 either your image is insanely aggresive or you better reevaluate your perception of the table as super tight.