Barron's Column 11/11/01

John


Are you losing it? I've attended about 10-20 meetings/seminars where people were predicting where the market is going as a matter of fact some of those names were pretty big people. Some said the market should go down some said up some said sideways. I think those are market predictions and most were wrong.So i guess you would say that people do better than 50%predicting ineterest rate since they have been trending down for the past 10 years. Wow!


B.s regards to a seperate source of getting information.Boy this gets old but here's another example;back in 1988 when Buffet bought coke an idiot could pick up the annual report and see their international sales were exploding,yet the market had not caught on.You had tons of time to buy the stock and still make a bundle just reading their annual report.Don't believe me look it up yourself.


Your confused in regards to the efficient market thesis.Because the maket is usually efficient doesn't mean it is always efficient. You just don't seem to get it. Hmm...

The difference between 10% and 7% is huge!


As you know, its the net present value of all

future earnings that matters.