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#1
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Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4
This is a sure call. Whether it's protected or not, the pot is so big that calling is clearly +EV. You will be shown a worse king, a 7 or even a busted flush draw making a move on this big pot enough of the time. Him being unknown makes the call even easier.
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#2
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Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4
I think this is an easy call. EP is unknown. At 2/4 odds are he doesn't even know what a protected pot is.
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#3
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Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4
Folks,
Thanks for all the replies. I thought this was an interesting situation and thought it was much closer than it would seem it actually was. The key point for me is the inconsistency of the EP's play. There just aren't enough hands he could have that make sense played the way he did. I think we probably are ahead something like 15-20% of the time at least. So folding really sucks (even though that's what I did, because I suck [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]). EP turns over K4, MP turns over QQ, and MHWHBG. The play still surprised me. My sense is that at 5/10, which is what I usually play, the river is much closer to a fold. |
#4
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Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4
The question in my mind and this goes to a previous Deranged and Jason_t post is whether laying down is ev postive here and if not whether laying down would be ev+ any higher limit. Do you get more of these moves in upper limits where players are more aware that you are aware of the protected pot? Anyone? Anyone?
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#5
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Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4: Appendix
Here's another hand I played in that same 2/4 session on Party.
An EP, MP, and LP limper enter, SB calls, and Deranged checks J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the BB. Flop (5 players, 5 SB): T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Deranged bets, EP player (unknown) calls, MP player (unknown player but probably not that good) calls, LP folds, SB folds. Turn (3 players, 4 BB): K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Deranged bets, EP raises, MP calls, Deranged folds... And I got screwed again. The river checked through, EP tabled 33, MP tabled AQ, and, again, MHWHBG. I was just very interested to see these two hands in a short period of time, where opponents were raising inferior hands in odd places in multiway pots. I think this hand is a pretty easy fold, particularly as it'll take more than 1 BB on average to get to showdown and the pot was very small going into the turn. It's certainly an observation I'm going to take to heart. |
#6
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Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4: Appendix *DELETED*
Post deleted by duckman
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#7
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Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4: Appendix
Yes... he didn't have a set. He had a super-underpair. I corrected it.
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#8
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Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4: Appendix
[ QUOTE ]
Here's another hand... [/ QUOTE ] Given the size of this pot, I think this is one of those hands that teaches you a lot about your opponents and you can live with the results... And makes me think of the not-entirely-appropriate-but-appropriate-enough cliche: "Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice..." I just realized -- didn't EP have a set? Doesn't he win the hand anyway? [NEVER MIND] |
#9
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Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4: Appendix
[ QUOTE ]
Here's another hand I played in that same 2/4 session on Party. An EP, MP, and LP limper enter, SB calls, and Deranged checks J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the BB. Flop (5 players, 5 SB): T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Deranged bets, EP player (unknown) calls, MP player (unknown player but probably not that good) calls, LP folds, SB folds. Turn (3 players, 4 BB): K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Deranged bets, EP raises, MP calls, Deranged folds... And I got screwed again. The river checked through, EP tabled 33, MP tabled AQ, and, again, MHWHBG. I was just very interested to see these two hands in a short period of time, where opponents were raising inferior hands in odd places in multiway pots. I think this hand is a pretty easy fold, particularly as it'll take more than 1 BB on average to get to showdown and the pot was very small going into the turn. It's certainly an observation I'm going to take to heart. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Because people at 2/4 are [censored] retarded. [/ QUOTE ] exactly what I meant, though I'm folding there without a read as well. |
#10
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Re: The Protected Pot Effect: A Study from 2/4: Appendix
If this hand was played over again 100 times with unknown players with the same cards folding would still be the right choice more times than not. I only make these marginal calls with clear reads and when Villian is super aggro.
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