Can I muck on the river?

[Ed Miller]

4-8 at Muckleshoot. I have K [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] K [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] in the BB. Two limpers to a relatively straightforward CO who raises. I 3-bet. Both limpers muck (is this really 4-8?). CO calls. Headsup on the flop.

Flop comes Q [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] . I bet, CO raises, I call. Turn is the 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] . I check, CO bets, I raise. CO calls. River is the A [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] . I check, CO bets. Can I muck, or do I have to call?

[sleepyjoe]

Unless you have a real good read on this person I think you have to call. He could have pushed a hand like 10s, or he could have AK and caught up o the river. With this many bets in the pot I think you'd be in a tough spot to fold. I think that there is the equivalent of 10 BBs in the pot, so you only have to be right more than 10% of the time to make calling the right move.

[calvin]

Hello,

I like your play until the river. With the 'straightforward' CO player who two bet you on the flop, and your raise on the blank turn, I think he had to put you on an overpair to the board. Although he could be holding AQ and caught up on the river, I would bet the river when the ace falls. After check raising the turn, checking the overcard on the river would induce me to bet into you, almost regardless of what I was holding.

The CO could be holding anything, and may have raised you just because he thinks you missed the flop. I do know if I had raised the flop, and been check raised on the turn, and was still in the hand on the river, I would most likely bet when the river was checked to me.

To answer your question then, I would have bet the river and gritted my teeth on the ace. It should be a lot clearer if you should muck on the river after you place your bet. In this case, I would call his river bet, as the pot has gotten, as the last post pointed out, large enough to justify your call most of the time.

[Bob T.]

I think you have to call, you only have to win about 9% of the time here, and although you are very likely behind, you will never be making a big mistake if you call. He just might be taking his last shot at the pot with KQ.

Good Luck,
Play Well,

Bob T.

[joedot]

I think betting on the river is horrible advice. A lot of hands can beat you at that point. And this poster points out, "After check raising the turn, checking the overcard on the river would induce me to bet into you." This is exactly why you should check. You may induce him to bet a hand that he wouldn't have called with, and he will probably not call with most hands that you can beat. But if you bet, he will probably always call and usually raise with a hand that beats your 1 pair. So check calling is good. You save yourself from having to call a raise when you're beat, and you pick off any of his bluff attempts. And if he plays like this poster, then you will make a lot of money because you are "inducing" him to bet almost every time. lol. Check, and yes, always call. Unless you have x-ray vision and can see his hole cards, or the guy is shaking his ass off so hard because he has the biggest monster hand you've ever seen. So, basically, always call. And value betting is not the play. Bluff inducing, yeah, that's the river play. Nicely played btw.

[calvin]

I see your point about checking the river, and simply calling the CO's bet. I think this is a very good play, and will save you a bet and take you to the showdown. I have no objections to it at all.

Depending on the opponent, though, I have this to say:

I still think you are giving the CO too much credit with his hand. The CR on the turn slowed down his betting. If he was sitting on a monster (AQ, AJ, etc.), I think the CO will fire away again on the turn, and make it three bets; after all, there is no guarantee there will be any action on the river, why not get his money in now? He would have to be very positive there was an overpair, or a set, out to not three bet, especially if he had a flush draw as well. Therefore, other possibilites include missing his flush, or his KQ or KJ could have gone unimproved. If either one of these is the case, when checked to, a bet is his only play to take down the pot. That's why I would bet out.

I think the CO will bet out with a weaker hand when checked to just as often as he will bet out with the winning hand.

Calvin [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]

[Ed Miller]

I disagree with your read on the CO. Remember that I 3-bet preflop from the BB. If he were to have a hand like AQ (or especially AJ... second pair, which I would hardly call a "monster"), and he put me on AA-JJ or AK when I 3-bet preflop, then he has to consider himself severely behind at this point... he is drawing dead against JJ or QQ, to two outs against AA, and to five outs against KK. It's hard to put me on AK after I checkraise him on the turn.

Far from 3-betting, his correct play on the turn with AQ would be to muck, as he is hopelessly behind. Because he displayed the weak player tendency to call down a turn raise, I played the hand the way I did to get some extra profit.

No straightforward player that I know of would 3-bet the turn with AJ or AQ here. That's what makes my turn checkraise safe, as I can safely muck to a 3-bet.

Given that he just calls my turn checkraise, the range of hands I can put him on is really very limited. AQ (by far my #1 guess), AA, KQ, AJ, KK, in that order. Remember, I said he was a straightforward player in my initial post, and I wasn't kidding.

[joedot]

You say, "including his missed flush...." Well, let's say he misses his flush. So you bet as you are proposing, what good have you done. This is exactly my point. You bet, he folds with a hand like this. You check, he may bet it and you make an extra bet. You bet, he will call and raise with hands that beat yours the vast majority of the time. And hands like missed flushes, and draws don't pay off your 1 pair hand. But checking, may get these hands to try to bluff at a fairly big pot at this point. In poker, there are a lot of decisions that can go both ways, many ways to play a hand. This is not one of those situations.