Does this call make sense?

[mackthefork]

The more I think about this the more I think its very straight forward, I had jsut dumped 3/4 of my stack to a 2 outer on the river after a turn push and the blinds where stupidly high compared to my stack, does anyone fold here?

PokerStars No-Limit (Turbo) Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed)

Hero (t1085)
UTG (t4360)
Button (t7645)
SB (t410)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls t400, <font color="CC3333">Button raises to t1200</font>, SB calls t185 (All-In), Hero calls t660 (All-In), UTG calls t800.


Regards Mack

[tigerite]

Er.. what if SB wins the hand? Then you go out 4th? But if you fold and he wins, he's only 200 chips more than you, and will hit the blinds again before you do (admittedly, you have the SB to come next hand, but still). Easy fold for me!?

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Er.. what if SB wins the hand? Then you go out 4th? But if you fold and he wins, he's only 200 chips more than you, and will hit the blinds again before you do (admittedly, you have the SB to come next hand, but still). Easy fold for me!?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how, if he wins he has around 1600 and I have 660, surely you miscalculated somewhere.

Regards Mack

[ChrisV]

Yep, straightforward.

[tigerite]

Mmm, but what if the bigger stack beats you but not the SB? I'm not really sure 75o is going to win often enough against 1 out of 2 opponents. Tricky one.

[Gramps]

Three things:

-I feel your pain (especially of late) on losing 3/4 of your stack on the 2-outer. But...don't let it affect this hand.

-If you fold and SB wins the hand, he still only has 745 chips (50 ante I'm assuming, I think that's right). So, with the ante he has to pay, he'll be all-in again before you're forced all-in, meaning he'll have to win two hands to steal 3rd place from you.

-It's nice if you call and win b/c then you have like 3k in chips or so to play with...but what % of the time do you think 75o is going to win here? If it was a decent multi-way hand like QJs or something, the reward might be worth the risk, but even though it'll be 3-way sometimes (if UTG folds), and even though you'll get to see all 5 cards...saying you're 20% to win the hand on average is probalby being overly generous.

And by you staying in with 75o, the odds of the SB being eliminated don't increase by that much (only matters when SB beats UTG/button, but you beat everyone). Plus, he has a random hand, while UTG and the button (okay, he may be stealing, by why wouldn't he just push then?) seem to like there's. Let those guys do the dirty work, then you can try to get lucky to double up and make a comeback (once 3rd is locked up which it will be the majority of the time).

Edit: Oops, SB gets 200 + 740 if he wins...I still say fold 75o, but I guess it's closer than I thought (since he won't be forced all-in by his BB if he wins - unless the blinds escalate).

[ChrisV]

Gramps, what the hell are you smoking? Are you playing 200's at the moment, cause I'm going to sit to your left. Everyone's in this hand, Hero has posted BB of 400, so SB is going to win 1620 at a minimum (if both Hero and UTG fold).

To say that the chances of SB winning don't decrease much is flat out wrong. Take this as an example - I gave SB the most random hand I could muster:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Ah 390495 35.96 693468 63.85 2045 0.19 0.360
Qd Jd 346286 31.89 737677 67.93 2045 0.19 0.319
4s 9c 148833 13.70 935130 86.11 2045 0.19 0.138
7c 5d 198349 18.26 885614 81.55 2045 0.19 0.183

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Ah 607473 44.32 759463 55.40 3818 0.28 0.444
Qd Jd 497797 36.32 869139 63.41 3818 0.28 0.364
4s 9c 261666 19.09 1105270 80.63 3818 0.28 0.192

SB's chances of winning decrease by nearly a third. That's HUGE. Note also your pot odds are above what you need to call in terms of chip EV.

Running this through the ICM (assumption: UTG wins side pots with no further betting) gives:

Call: .1911
Fold: .1773

[Gramps]

Yeah, that's what I get for trying to post while playing the 10/15 level of 4 tournies. I assumed SB had 185 to start the hand and was all-in...and later I was posting as I was entering tournies and got stuck playing a $215 limit SNG (but at least I got lucky and won that one [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])...

I'm not familiar with ICM and it's assumptions. I don't doubt that calling would be +EV chip-wise. Whether it's +EV $dollar wise or not with the facts posted...hard to say, because your presence in the hand really doesn't do much to improve the chances of SB getting knocked out in 4th - so I think it's mostly a function of the risk that you'll get knocked out before SB, balanced against the reward of replenishing your stack when your 75o gets lucky and wins.

As far as your coming in 3rd place, the only way your presence in the hand makes a difference is if your 75o wins the hand and SB comes in 2nd. If 75o wins and SB loses to UTG and/or the button...well...you would have gotten 3rd place even if you had folded, b/c SB would have been eliminated anyhow.

If you assumed it was only the button, you, and SB, and you had 3 random hands, your presence making a difference (by you winning the hand and SB's hand beating the button's) would happen 17% of the time (factoring out ties, etc.). The button seems to like his hand, we'll assume the SB has a random hand (though he may have exercised some selection criteria), and 75o is near the bottom as far as hand rankings (HU or multiway).

I'd venture that in a 3-way pot with SB and the button, the above-described 3-way scenario is probably going to happen more like 10% of the time. And sometimes there'll be the presence of the 4th player as well (who on average probably has better than an average hand given his open-limp).

[ChrisV]

The purpose of the ICM is to determine your equity of the prize pool (which is what those decimals I gave are). It's imperfect but gives a rough comparative method.

[Daliman]

Your Sim results should have included an overpair, which would have shown the obvious answer here, fold, and also is pretty likely, ESPECIALLY considering the fact that the big stack raised the other big stack's open limp. Also, the SB should be given a much better hand than 49o for comparison purposes. Q7 is semi-wellknown as the average hand, what's wrong with that, other than the fact that it kills your theory by dominating 57o.

Fact is, it's a terrible call. Chances are you're guaranteeing 3rd at best, while folding could concievably get you into second by the beginning of the next hand.
Any gain of EV from ICM, which I can almost assure you, there is none, is HIGHLY mitigated by the variance.

FOLD!