River bet? - Page 2

sleepyjoe · #11 12-30-2002, 10:07 AM

I check behind. IF you had a larger pair like Qs or Ks then you could bet but what hands would this individual call the flop with? I think betting here is a negative expectation play.

Also, I know a lot of these guys are experts (Sklansky, Malmuth, Ray Zee, etc.) but how does Ray get away with making the statement about your bet will lose a lot here but so what?

What does that mean? If a bet is going to cause you to lose more money a lot of the time, how can it be a good thing?

If you had absolutely nothing and needed to bet the end in a desparate attempt to get the other guy to fold then I could understand Ray's statement. But you have a legitimate hand and there is no need to get him to fold on the end. If he can beat you he's going to call any bet.

I think betting is a horrible play, given the board. What hands will he call with that you can beat? That list is certainly a lot smaller than the list of hands where you are going to lose more money by betting on the end.

Homer · #12 12-30-2002, 10:36 AM

Bet. If he has a weak Ace or a bigger pocket pair, so be it. There are many worse hands that will call here as well, making this a value bet.

-- Homer

Homer · #13 12-30-2002, 10:38 AM

What he means is that you will lose a bet sometimes, but it doesn't matter because more often you will win a bet, making betting a better play than checking.

-- Homer

sleepyjoe · #14 12-30-2002, 10:44 AM

"You will lose a lot to a bigger pair or small ace but who cares."

This is Ray Zee's statement. I guess I don't understand "You will lose a lot". I assumed that a lot meant more than half the time. If you are making a bet on the end where you will lose more than half the time, then the only reason to make this bet is if you cannot (or are unlikely to) win without the bet and you are trying to get the other person to fold.

That does not seem to apply here.

If you are going to "lose a lot here to a bigger pair or small ace" (and "a lot" means more than half the time, then what is the point in betting?

pudley4 · #15 12-30-2002, 01:22 PM

I figured he didn't have an A - most LL players will check-raise the turn with the A. The only hands I think he could have and check-raise me with would be 45 (gutshot on the flop, open ended on the turn, hit the straight on the river) or 22 for the rivered full house.

I bet, he called, I took down the pot as he showed 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

Homer · #16 12-30-2002, 01:54 PM

When he says "a lot", he does not mean "more than half of the time". I think it would have been better if he had said, "You will often lose to a weak ace or bigger pocket pair, but this will not occur as often as you will be called by a worse hand."

In any event, you obviously would not want to bet if you thought a better hand would call more often than a worse hand would call.

-- Homer

Ulysses · #17 12-30-2002, 04:59 PM

but how does Ray get away with making the statement about your bet will lose a lot here but so what?

By "a lot," Ray means some significant portion of the time, but less than 50%, say 25-40% of the time. If it's > 50%, obviously you should not make that bet.

What hands will he call with that you can beat?

I list quite a few in my first response in this thread.

Your mistake is that you are looking at the board alone, not the board and the action. You need to ask two questions. First, what range of hands will check-call the flop and turn, then check the river. Then, of those hands, which will call that you can beat. The answer to that is what makes this an easy river bet.

Dynasty · #18 12-30-2002, 09:23 PM

This is Ray Zee's statement. I guess I don't understand "You will lose a lot". I assumed that a lot meant more than half the time.

Didn't you read the sentence which came immediately after that?

Ray Zee: you will lose alot of times to a bigger pair or a small ace but who cares. there are many more hands he could have and still pay off on the end.

The second sentance makes it clear that Ray thinks you will get called by a worse hand more than 50% of the time.

Dynasty · #19 12-30-2002, 09:26 PM

I bet, he called, I took down the pot as he showed 5[img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/forums/images/icons/diamond.gif[/img]

Players are calling river bets with weak hands like this all the time. Start value betting more often.

PokerPrince · #20 12-30-2002, 10:23 PM

Not betting the river for value is massive leak in many players games. I can't tell you how many bets I left on the table in my first year of playing. Probably enough to to buy groceries for a year. So many players will call your river bet with the weakest crap you've ever seen. Capitalize on this take an extra BB off them.

PokerPrince