River play no. 1

[skp]

I had three interesting river decisions last night. I'll post the three hands in separate threads.

The first hand also has a "what do I do on the turn" component.

I open raise from 2 off the button with Ad3d. Only the bb (a pretty good player) calls.

Flop: Kd7d6h

He bets. I raise.

Turn: As

He bets again.

What should I do?

River: Ah

If you just called the turn, what should you do if bb bets the river?

If you raised the turn, what should you do if bb checks the river?

[sleepyjoe]

I raise the turn, then I bet the river.

[Ginogino]

skp:
What would he hold that he'd call with pre-flop but want to raise with when the flop hits? I sometimes call from the big blind with AKo against multiple players, but who'd do it against a single late position opponent? I also think it unlikely he holds KK. This leads me to believe that he has two pair (K7 or K6 or 76) or a set of 6's or 7's. You'd want to play a set fast against that board, I think, but would you NOT re-raise when you raise him on the flop? Perhaps, but I think it most likely that he doesn't have a set both from the betting and from the number of sets available versus the number of two-pair hands available.

His lead-bet on the turn is consistent with either a set or two pair, and with either hand he's still ahead, though you have draws. You must call, though I think a raise is too much here.

If he had a set, the river gives him a boat. If he had two pair, the river makes you a winner, and I think the odds (3 ways he could have a set of 6's and 3 ways he could have a set of 7's versus 9 ways he could have K7, 9 ways for K6, 9 ways for 76) are sufficient to make a raise worthwhile.

Needless to say, people turn up with all kinds of hands that don't seem logical at all given their play, but that's how it looks to me.

Gino

[Manzanita]

skp,

The interesting part of this hand is that the BB led into you again on the turn after you raised the flop. Since he's a pretty good player, I think that he's got an Ace.

With the outs you have to the nut flush I would raise the turn and just check behind on the river.

-- Manzanita

[Jamie Collins]

skp,
Heads-up BB could have anything really. One poster thought he had an ace because he is a good player. I thought the opposite, that a good player with a pair below the Ace (Kx, 7x, 99) would test you on the turn and dump if you raised (a la Tommy Angelo). The other possibilities- he had or made two pair and is afraid you'll check the turn. Or he bluff bet the flop with Ax.
I like just calling the turn. In a small heads-up pot I'll take the higher variance play. If I'm ahead I don't want him bailing on the turn.

To answer your second question, if I raised the turn I would bet the river and make a crying call if raised. BB probably wouldn't check the river with a full house but will probably call with a K.

Jamie

[Penguin]

In thinking how I'd play this, I have to wonder if I'm a Wuss!

On the turn, I have a hard time imagining that he isn't ahead with a hand that he will want to showdown. So I don't see any value to raising. I call.

On the river, if he bets I just call. I think I could well be behind, and if I'm not, there is a good chance he won't call my raise.

[afish]

You should raise the turn, because your opponent won't bet into you on the river if a diamond falls. If your opponent doesn't have an Ace, he'll probably fold, but he'd likely fold on the river anyway (unless he improved). Check behind on the river unless a diamond falls.

I think you have to call the river, because BB won't call a raise unless he beats you.

[skp]

I called the turn and called the river. My opponent showed a busted flush draw. He was drawing dead on the turn.
As it turned out, I made the same amount here that I would have had I raised the turn and bet the river.

In any event, I am still not quite sure what the proper turn play is against this particular opponent (one who plays well enough to realize the value of a hand and how it varies depending on the situation). He may well have been playing a strong hand in a strange way to induce excessive action etc. To be honest, he had me a little confused with the stop 'n go given that there was an Ace and a King on the board and given that I had raised preflop (albeit from a semi-steal position).

One reason to raise on the turn is that the raise may be protected i.e. most players would not be able to make it three bets with anything less than a set (okay, maybe AK too).

Had I raised the turn and he called, I probably would have checked when the second ace came. I may have bet if I made two pairs.