River play No. 3

[skp]

2 limpers. I complete in the sb with 6d5d. bb knuckles.

Flop: Jd3h2h

I bet. All three call...doh

skp to self: "okay, the jig is up"

turn: Js

skp to self: "damn...I gotta keep bluffing now :-)"

I bet. bb calls. Other 2 fold.

River: 6c

My river play?

[sleepyjoe]

strangely enough I think you bet "for value" here. What can he have that he's been calling along with? I guess he could have a middle pair but it seems more likely that he had either a flush draw or overcards. He'll be hardpressed to raise you without a Jack. But I'd bet out here just in hopes of not having to show the hand I started with. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

[M.B.E.]

The flop play is reminiscent of "the T9 problem" that was hotly debated here about a year ago. Only your situation is different because (among other things) the pot is smaller. So I think check-folding the flop is better than betting out.

Given that you bet the flop, I agree with betting out on the turn. Although check-folding is almost as good.

When you hit your pair on the river, I'm inclined to check. If your opponent checks behind and shows you a medium pocket pair you might kick yourself, thinking he might have folded if you bet, but it seems much more likely he has a flush draw. If he does have a busted flush draw you might induce a bet. It's also possible he has jack, weak kicker. So on the river my play is to check-call. You could also make a case for a check-raise bluff, representing 54 for a straight. But then if he three-bets you have to fold.

[AceHigh]

I would just check on the river, hope he is on a flush draw. I doubt he can call with most hands you beat, maybe Ax of hearts, or 44 and 55. So I would guess betting is -EV.

Could he be waiting to raise you with a Jack or 54s?

[Penguin]

I check and call.

I see no hope of getting a better hand to fold - e.g. a middle pair. If he called the turn with it, he's calling the river.

There are not too many hands I would expect to call me that I can beat. Possibly any 2, any 3 depending on the player.

So I play it safe and check call.

[skp]

I bet and got called by 32...hehe

The bb is the least likely of my opponents to have a Jack (given that he was the first to act after my bet). Likely, the second guy also did not have a Jack. the third guy we are less sure of. But in any event, since I got 3 callers, I was done with the semibluff...until the second Jack came when i just couldn't resist...hehe

One note: these three chaps that were in the hand with me were all pretty poor players who could be calling with as little as one overcard. So, I was thinking to myself (after they all called on the flop) that if a king or queen came of, I would check and if no one bet, I would bluff the river...anyway, I digress...

On the river, I find that trying to induce a bluff in this spot is not very effective i.e. The dude is not going to put me on a "checkfold" on the river given the way the cards came out and given my flop and turn action. On the other hand, there is a flush draw on the flop which I could have been betting. So, he may put me on a bluff if I bet and may call with hands that I can beat like Ace high, a pair of 3's, a pair of deuces etc (he of course would also call with hands that beat me like 88 etc). Anyway, when you take all of these factors into consideration, I think that the decision is a close one against a bad player (which this guy was). It's probably checkcall against a good player as it's hard to see how he could have called you on the turn with a hand that you can beat on the river.