if i miss one more value bet....

joseki · #1 09-30-2005, 01:09 AM

Villain is 57/24/1.2 with wts/w$sd of 36/55. How often do you bet this river?

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP checks, Hero bets, MP calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP checks, Hero bets, MP calls.

River: (6.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 6.75 BB

NLSoldier · #2 09-30-2005, 01:13 AM

Fairly often. This guy looks aggro enough that he would have let you hear about any pair on an earlier street and woulda capped PF with AK. Only thing that kinda sucks is that river card. Id like it a lot more if the river was a 9.

Monty Cantsin · #3 09-30-2005, 01:16 AM

If you're beating yourself up over not value betting here, then I think I can safely say that missing value bets isn't a big problem for you - next leak!

/mc

#4 09-30-2005, 01:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you're beating yourself up over not value betting here, then I think I can safely say that missing value bets isn't a big problem for you - next leak!

/mc

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. You're looking to get called by what, a lower ace high?

gildwulf · #5 09-30-2005, 01:24 AM

If villain was 50/1/.2 this would be a value bet.

NLSoldier · #6 09-30-2005, 01:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you're beating yourself up over not value betting here, then I think I can safely say that missing value bets isn't a big problem for you - next leak!

/mc

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. You're looking to get called by what, a lower ace high?

[/ QUOTE ]

A8,A9/AJ. Hero is ahead pretty much 100% of the time that villian does not have a 10.

#7 09-30-2005, 01:43 AM

That's 12 combinations....still seems a little thin against the 14 combinations of ten/broadway or ten/ace.

Two questions NLSoldier:

1. Why can't villain have 22, 33 or 89?
2. Do you call a c/r on the river?

NLSoldier · #8 09-30-2005, 01:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
That's 12 combinations....still seems a little thin against the 14 combinations of ten/broadway or ten/ace.

Two questions NLSoldier:

1. Why can't villain have 22, 33 or 89?
2. Do you call a c/r on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

he probably CRs the flop with 22/33. possibly CRs or donks the turn with 89 and probably doenst raise preflop with it. remember this guy was like 50/25/1.5 or something.

No.

Monty Cantsin · #9 09-30-2005, 01:49 AM

Just to be clear, I think you can make a good argument for betting the river here. It may, in fact, be correct for a variety of reasons. Not only will you get called by a worse A sometimes, you will also fold AK or AQ sometimes.

I'm just saying not betting here doesn't indicate a serious value-betting problem.

/mc

joseki · #10 09-30-2005, 01:50 AM

I agree that I'm very often ahead, but how often is this guy calling a bet with a losing hand?