Pay off this river c/r?

[private joker]

I fold this. At 2/4, I noticed more river checkraise bluffs than I expected, but I still think they happen maybe 1 in 20 or 25 times, especially on a board like this. So unless the pot is twice this size, it's a fold.

[oreogod]

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Fold.

Now if I played the hand, I check the river. I dont see it as a value bet, but Id hear any arguments that say otherwise.

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I don't see a value bet, and if somebody else bets, there's no way in hell I'm overcalling. Moozh says value bets can be really thin, but this is a really big field, and that lowers whatever value bet expectation you might have.

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Exactly.

Moozh, I respectfully disagree and think its a little too thin to be a value bet here.

[chesspain]

1. Immediately after the hand was completed, I checked her AG factors, and saw that she had a post-flop factor of 1.7, but with a river AG of "5"...although that is still for only twenty-five hands.

2. On a later hand, I raised in EP with AJo, there were a couple of cold callers, and she called in the BB with AK. The flop came KQx. She checkcalled my flop bet, and she checkcalled me again (now HU) when I turned my str8. When a rag rivered, she checkraised me and called my three-bet.
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a) If you knew both of the above when facing the river checkraise in this KQo hand, would you be more likely to call or fold?

b) What if you only knew #1 above, w/o the benefit of the AJo hand?

[Buck_65]

I'm definitely folding to a river check raise here with any combination of that information. Villain very likely has at worst a pair of aces.

[chief444]

Chesspain,

If you're paying off a raise on this river then I really don't like the bet. I'm not so sure I like it anyway. As it is though I think it's a pretty easy fold. I'd be shocked if SB check/raises as a bluff here with two opponents and an AK on board after you showing aggression on all streets including a river value bet.

Chief

[Reef]

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Fold.

Now if I played the hand, I check the river. I dont see it as a value bet, but Id hear any arguments that say otherwise.

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I agree. 4 handed check the river, but that's just me

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Immediately after the hand was completed, I checked her AG factors, and saw that she had a post-flop factor of 1.7, but with a river AG of "5"...although that is still for only twenty-five hands.

2. On a later hand, I raised in EP with AJo, there were a couple of cold callers, and she called in the BB with AK. The flop came KQx. She checkcalled my flop bet, and she checkcalled me again (now HU) when I turned my str8. When a rag rivered, she checkraised me and called my three-bet.
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a) If you knew both of the above when facing the river checkraise in this KQo hand, would you be more likely to call or fold?

b) What if you only knew #1 above, w/o the benefit of the AJo hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

(b) With just the 5 river aggression stat, I'd probably look her up, still expecting to lose. I have run across some players who like to call, call, call, and then raise or checkraise, depending, with their unimproved pocket 6's. 25 hands isn't much, but I'd be suspicious.

(a) Knowing she had TPTK on the river during this AJ hand would make me less inclined to call, though I might do it anyway. (I pay off too much sometimes.)

Edit for (a): Well, on second thought, I don't know how much this additional information (beyond the 5 river aggression) would change things for me. In your AJ hand, she did checkraise the river with TPTK despite the fact that the board had gotten scarier (than it was on the flop) by this point. I'd wonder if maybe in the KQ hand she had waited until the river to spring her trap with, say, KQ-KT.

Without the stats you looked up later, I agree with the others that you're probably not good often enough after the river checkraise. I also agree with those who have said checking the river instead of betting might be the way to go here.

[chesspain]

I folded to the river checkraise, and initially thought that the decision was closer than it apparently was. Indeed, I expected a barrage of people to say "This is Party--how could you fold getting 14:1?"