Should I have been in this hand still?

[chief444]

Just to give those in the "fold the flop" camp something to think about here...eleventy's equity on the flop here is probably somewhere between 20-25 percent on average. Sometimes slightly below (if against a set) sometimes above (if A outs are good). Granted there will be occasions when he doesn't see the river so it's a little deceiving but it still seems like a fine time to continue here with a 13 SB pot.

[ckessel]

You're 5-1 to make the inside straight by the river. You're getting 10-2 to make the call, so it seems close, but good. There's more to consider though which makes it a much more marginal call.

The 5-1 only counts if you know you're seeing the river. If it's 2 bets to you on the turn, you're getting 5-1 on a 10-1 shot, which is not good.

I think its either 3-bet or fold. By just calling you put yourself in the worst possible position on the turn where you're likely to be faced with poor odds to make the call to see the river. And if you're not seeing the river, you might as well fold the flop because you didn't get flop odds to pull only 1 card.

I think I 3-bet it and pray for a free card or at least only having to face one bet on the turn (which is a good call then).

[oreogod]

Its fold or re-raise time. Once u factor in all the possibilites of the flop betting, effective odds, etc....calling sucks. If u think u can get a free turn card, re-raise. If not, its a fold.

[Sifmole]

All the out counting here is giving the hand credit for the following groups of outs ( some discounted ):

-- gutshot ( 1 )
-- bd flush ( 1.5 )
-- over card ( 3 )

But I don't think we can even give the hand that many outs:

PF Action:
The SB raised PF vs 3 limpers, since we have no read I think it is reasonable to give the SSHE table. AA - 99, AK - ATs, KQs, AK, AQ ( about ).

The BB, I believe could have quite a range of cards here -- but I would be very suprised if there wasn't at least 1 paint card; and AK, AQ, Axs are very possible.

Flop Action:
SB comes out firing; don't think he has QQ. But almost anything else he would make this bet ( most 2+2ers would right? ). BB raises; could be blind defense but he could also well have a Q from AQ, KQ, QJ. He could also have something very hidden like 23s.

Out turn, Our outs:

-- gutshot ( 1 )
-- bd flush ( 1.5 )
-- over card ( 2 ) possibility that we are dominated here by either SB or BB that has AQ

We have 4.5 outs and getting 7:1 odds ( I am assuming a SB call or BB raise ). Our odds are about 11:1. I don't see a reasonable call.

SB 3-bets... I don't think it is safe to assume he is a donkey; so I am thinking AQ or KK, JJ, TT here, maybe AK but doubtful. The BB caps; I think this really limits BB to some strong hands ( made or draws ); 23o, QQ, KQ, AQ, QJ, and an outside 45s.

Our turn, our outs:

-- gutshot ( 1 )
The 4 looks safe but it isn't a nut hand; doubtful this betting is someone holding a 56; but any 4 will put a flush draw on the board, the 4s ours but the 4d and 4c not.

-- bd flush ( 1 )
A concern here is that there is a distinct likelie hood that one of our opponents has at least two pair, if not a set; most likely the BB w/ a low two pair. So any flush card that pairs the board is a concern ( 2s, Qs ) -- so even our flush draw is looking like it could be 2nd best at the river.

-- over card ( 0 )
I don't think we can give any credit for an Ace winning this hand. I really doubt one pair is even the best hand right now, let alone at the river.

So I see two outs here or a 22:1 draw with 10:1 odds. I don't know how even if we have already called 2 that we can call 2 more.

------------------

How weak am I? Tear me up please, I am trying to get better.

[jskills]

The pot is big enough on the flop to call one bet to make your 4 outer, but not 2 bets. Fold.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
-- gutshot ( 1 )

[/ QUOTE ]

The gutshot should be 4 outs. There's no reason to discount because BB or SB has 56 (they don't). There's no reason to think either of them have a backdoor flush draw, so there's no need to discount the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

You may consider that one or both opp have a set, so even if we hit on the turn, they'll have a redraw to a full house, but even then you sould only discount to 3 outs.

[gasoltub]

[ QUOTE ]
All the out counting here is giving the hand credit for the following groups of outs ( some discounted ):

-- gutshot ( 1 )
-- bd flush ( 1.5 )
-- over card ( 3 )



[/ QUOTE ]

I think you got something backwards here.

On the flop:
The gutshot is 3-4 outs and the Ace with a bad kicker is probably no more than 1.

On the turn:
Since we have a flush draw now, all 4's are good so that gives us, 9 spades plus the 3 other fours plus ~1 out for the ace which equals 12-13 outs. (most likely only 12 since the ace is probably no good)

[tpir90036]

I would 3-bet this and go from there...most likely taking the free card no matter what hits. The pot is getting big and if seeing the turn is a mistake it's only a small one.

[Sifmole]

wow -- I can't believe I put a 1 there..... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

That would make a difference in the calculations.