Positive EV vs. survival in Tourneys

[triplc]

Hi all,

there have been several threads recently in which debates have arisen surrounding making plays when you have positive (tourney chip) EV. For example, if I hit a four-flush on the flop, should I call an all-in bet (when covered) if the pot is laying me the correct odds. This particular post does not attempt to cover the situation when you are not putting all of your chips at risk, but we can branch out to that topic here as well if folks want to.

Here's my take on it...feel free to blast away, folks.

In a ring game, when you decide to chase a four-flush (1.9 to 1 to hit by the river) because the pot odds are correct, you are talking about real dollar EV, and thus it is correct to chase the four-flush because in the long run you will win more real dollars than you lose, which is what we all strive to do. However, in a tourney (multi or SnG) you are not playing with real dollars, but tourney chips. So, the decision has to be based upon the real-dollar EV vs. the tourney chip EV.

For example...you flop a four-flush with T1000 and a player who covers you pushes all-in. The pot is laying sufficient odds for you to call (let's say 3-to-1 to make it simple). Even so, two out of three times you are going to bust out, and once you are going to quadruple up. So, do the 3000 chips you win one time make up for the two times that you bust out? I don't think so, especially if you are one of the better players at the table, and figure to have a spot sometime soon when you have the best hand. What if the pot odds are 4-to-1? 5-to-1? Do you chase it now? Are there any odds that would make you chase it?

What about a gutshot straight draw. Say the same scenario but now the odds of making are 5.1 to 1 against and the pot is laying to 8 to 1 odds (far-fetched in NLHE, but possible). Here, you are gaining 8000 chips once, and busting out 5 times. Granted, the 8000 put you in great position to win the one tourney, but does that outweigh your survival in the 5 others. In this case, I'm even less inclined to do this because I am going to bust out 5 times out of six.

These are contrived examples, and in reality there is a lot more to consider, such as stack size, how close to the money, blind size etc... But most recognized (Sklansky, Cloutier/McEvoy) experts feel that protecting your stack is more important that positive tourney chip EV, especially if you are one of the best players at the table, and you are putting your entire stack at risk in a drawing situation.

Does this change for multis vs. SnGs? Do the two different structures (one being quick and the other requiring more time invested) mean you think about this issue differently?

Interested to hear the debate. Flame away.

CCC