AK river bluff

1/2 limit hold'em, ten handed

Villains are unknowns, although the hand before this I reraised villain preflop as well, then raised him when he led into me on the flop. He folded, but he might think I'm a bit on the aggresive side, raising him two hands in a row.

Hero is CO+1 dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Preflop

UTG+1 raises, middle player calls, Hero 3 bets, Blinds fold, original raiser and middle player call

Flop
2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Checked to hero who bets, both players call

Turn
7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Checked to hero who bets, both call

River
2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Checked to hero again, what's my play?

I'm thinking the standard move here is to check and hope both villains are on busted draws. It's pretty much impossible for me to get called by a weaker hand here if I bet, so any bet on the end is definately not for value. In the actual hand however I bet, and I don't think it was a mistake.

Now we all know that the primary mistake players at this level make is playing too loose. Their loose calls are why we make money. While I think most villains at this level are too loose preflop and on the flop, I think that most players at this level are too tight on the river, particularly in big pots. In a situation like this I think I can make someone lay down a hand like mid/bottom pair, or a small pocket pair with a river bet. Often villains call down with these hands not to get them shown down, but to improve them by spiking a kicker, hitting trips etc. If they don't improve by the river, they might fold. The fact that there are ten big bets in this pots makes a river bluff even more tempting, because I only have to make someone fold a better hand a small percentage of the time to make this play +EV. Thoughts?

[trainslayer]

I think you have to check. The chances of folding TWO villians is a small percentage of the time.

and, The fact that there are ten big bets in this pots makes the likely hood of at least one caller even greater.

edit: if'n ya haven't already ya need to read this.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to check. The chances of folding TWO villians is a small percentage of the time.

and, The fact that there are ten big bets in this pots makes the likely hood of at least one caller even greater.

edit: if'n ya haven't already ya need to read this.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may be right, however I think you're overestimating the average villains awareness of pot size when it comes to making river decisions. It seems like the typical villain thinking is "I'm probably beat, I fold", rather than "I'm probably beat, however there is x dollars in the pot, and I'm getting x:1 on my call, so I only need to be good x% of the time for this call to be profitable."

[Jefzter]

I would do a continuation bet here. You can hopefully chase off anyone who has paired their 3 or 7. If they had a 2 or a 10 I would assume that they would have come out betting.

[ThaHero]

Against two opponents, I check. Against one, I think I'm inclined to bet if he's capable of folding or calling with a weaker Ace.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Against two opponents, I check. Against one, I think I'm inclined to bet if he's capable of folding or calling with a weaker Ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

I basically NEVER bet this river with AK UI HU. Knowing that he can call with a weaker ace does NOT justify betting. Also, most villains will not fold their pair hands on the river if they call on the turn.

[Absolution]

You wouldn't bet this if it were just the EP player (who raised preflop) check calling you?

[grayhawk]

With 2 opponents, I check this down, especially since their c/c behavior so far indicates a possible flush draw. You could bet this out and get c/r by one of them. Based on their possible read of you as an aggressive player (from your previous hand), I don't see any pair here folding to a bet. If for nothing else, a small pair may call just to see your hand for how to play you in future hands. 1 BB may be worth the price to them.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
You wouldn't bet this if it were just the EP player (who raised preflop) check calling you?

[/ QUOTE ]

In most cases, I'm not betting this HU. The reason to bet is because you think villain will play AK this way (no preflop cap small pot, check-call flop and turn with no pair) AND you think he is aggressive enough to bet a pair like 99 or KT *somewhere* in this hand. In this very specific case, you win the extra half pot from villain when he folds his AK. In every other case, it doesn't matter.

But I would like to have the reason to bet before I bet it. I would rather showdown this hand for free because my hand does not have showdown value if I'm called. I also want to know what hand villain raised UTG+1.

(I'm much more inclined to bet KQs on the river than AK.)

[Yerma]

I think that if someone has a pair, you are getting called >95% of the time here.