Big pot TP but I dont think im good

[silkyslim]

BB is tight, UTG is unknown. Thoughts? I want to fold the turn when he donks as the board paired.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold , CO calls, 1 fold , SB raises , BB calls, UTG 3-bets , Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (15 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets , BB calls, UTG raises , Hero 3-bets , CO folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets , Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (15.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets , Hero folds, BB calls.

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

I think the turn is close between calling and raising, but I don't like folding. Don't give so much credit to donk bets. Raising is good because it makes gutshots incorrect to call, but you risk getting 3bet and you might be behind a worse ten.

UTG's lrr and then donk on the turn is consistant w/a 2/4 donk being a donk, but w/no read he might not be full of it.

You have too much hand to fold in this pot and I like calling down.

-Craig

[hellite]

[ QUOTE ]
BB is tight, UTG is unknown. Thoughts? I want to fold the turn when he donks as the board paired.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold , CO calls, 1 fold , SB raises , BB calls, UTG 3-bets , Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (15 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets , BB calls, UTG raises , Hero 3-bets , CO folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets , Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (15.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets , Hero folds, BB calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look, If you call that turn bet, you must call the river bet. This pot is too big. Yes, it looks as though you are up against a big overpair, but why call the turn bet if you think you only have two outs? With the 7s on board a J does you no good. I can't see folding this river for one bet. fold turn or pay for a showdown.

[tonypaladino]

Focusing on the river:

You have to be beaten over 94% of the time to not call with 15 BBs in the pot. This is an easy call.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
Focusing on the river:

You have to be beaten over 94% of the time to not call with 15 BBs in the pot. This is an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]
I was almost that sure i was beat, but whatever i agree with you. should have done one or the other. i meant to fold and called on a brain fart so i figured id go ahead and save a bet. it wasnt my std line to callturn/fold river.

[W. Deranged]

I think raising the turn and taking a free showdown is much better than calling down here. If you get three-bet on the turn you can dump it, you charge the max if the dude's picked up a draw or something, and you protect your hand from overcards and maybe even get BB to fold a better hand (I think he'd be hard-pressed to call down here with QT or something like that).

Against some opponents, folding the turn is correct. Against an unknown it's tough to say. If your hand is worth the 2BB it'd take to get to showdown, putting them in on the turn is definitely preferable in my opinion.

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

[ QUOTE ]
I think raising the turn and taking a free showdown is much better than calling down here. If you get three-bet on the turn you can dump it,

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my first reaction was well, but by the time it's 3bet you've almost priced yourself in at 17.5:1 considering you probably have 2 outs and possibly more if he's only on TP and the times he might 3bet you behind (I know not all that likely but it happens).

-Craig

[W. Deranged]

True, your equity will be kind of sizeable, but I don't think you're ever getting three-bet by a hand that you are ahead of or which you have more than 2 outs against. Since your outs (the two Ts) are so obvious, you have little in the way of implied odds so even though the 17.5-1 sounds big you're not getting to the 22-1 or whatever necessary.

I also think that 7s with weak kickers and so on often not three-betting here. A villain looking to really put the screws to you might have check-raised rather than betting out.