expert play or lapse in judgement?

Well, you wont feel like an expert when he shows you A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but you will when he whiffs with AQo.

[Tommy Angelo]

"the call on the flop isn't all that bad either. One, the raiser will bet even with a hand like AQ. His 55 may be best. And if it is AND his opponent(s) make a mistake of checking the turn, he may be able to win the pot. add to that the small chance he may hit a set on the turn. Given the $ already in the pot, it is not at all unreasonable to throw in one more small bet just in case.
The only reasonable argument against that call is that there are two players behind him to act. This would push the flop call to -EV, but I don't think by much."

I agree with every line. This is not an autofold for me either. I think you left out two important things though.

1) He had the five of clubs. Without it, I would fold for sure. That's one of those little things I didn't use to pay all that much attention to and now it is more often than not the determining factor to whether or not I stay in on the flop with an under-pocket-pair and a twotone board. With the five of clubs, I might or might not call, depending on the dependencies.

It's not just that without the club five I could hit my set and complete a flush for someone on the turn. It's also that I could hit my set and put a three-flush on board, giving equity and determination to anyone with a lone club, while simultaneously taking away my threebet power on the turn.

2) With a board of K-9-4, if a five comes on the turn, it does not complete an openender or a double gutshot, or give anyone a one-card straight draw going in to the river. If the board was say K-7-6, I'd fold on the flop even if I had the club five.

Tommy

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
is this call an expert play or lapse in judgement?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like it--I prefer folding and raising to calling. The key here is that calling encourages broadway gutshots to call, whereas a raise will probably knock those hands out. If the flop was K-8-4 I wouldn't mind calling as much.

[Schneids]

I agree 100% with phish, everything he said.

To also add: a lot of high limit players when OOP vs a PFR will basically either c/r or c/f, so by check calling he is not making his hand any more vulnerable since they were or weren't going to fold whether it's 1 or 2 cold. Obv JT or QJ might be exceptions. But I really don't see it as a bad change up play in a lot of lineups.

[DonCaspero]

[ QUOTE ]
The only reasonable argument against that call is that there are two players behind him to act. This would push the flop call to -EV, but I don't think by much.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's why a raise is better than a call. You are out of position with a very marginal hand. Your equity is only good if noone has a flushdraw or a made hand over 5s. By just calling your flush draw is negated by letting in players behind holding a higher [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
And by only calling you can be pretty sure a tough player in position will bet a blank turn on this board. And with the two players in the middle still in there, any overcard to your 5 looks like bad news - and it will be expensive to find out how bad!

I can see some reason in just calling to "hide" a possible monster hand, and making a play for the pot on the turn. But would you really choose a flop with a flushdraw and a gutshot straight draw to make this play with a set? To make this play here would take some pretty solid reads!

Calling the flop to make a play on a later street should mainly be considered a NL play - you simply don't have the firepower and hence folding equity to make it work in FL (again, against certain players it may be the correct play once in a while)

[phish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only reasonable argument against that call is that there are two players behind him to act. This would push the flop call to -EV, but I don't think by much.


I think that's why a raise is better than a call. You are out of position with a very marginal hand. Your equity is only good if noone has a flushdraw or a made hand over 5s. By just calling your flush draw is negated by letting in players behind holding a higher [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
And by only calling you can be pretty sure a tough player in position will bet a blank turn on this board. And with the two players in the middle still in there, any overcard to your 5 looks like bad news - and it will be expensive to find out how bad!

I can see some reason in just calling to "hide" a possible monster hand, and making a play for the pot on the turn. But would you really choose a flop with a flushdraw and a gutshot straight draw to make this play with a set? To make this play here would take some pretty solid reads!

Calling the flop to make a play on a later street should mainly be considered a NL play - you simply don't have the firepower and hence folding equity to make it work in FL (again, against certain players it may be the correct play once in a while)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're missing the point. His hand is not good enough to warrant putting more than one small bet in. And he has no intention of bluffing at the pot.

The call was a long shot meant solely to preserve his equity in the pot. If anyone bets the turn, he folds. He's hopping to either get real lucky and hit a set, or his hand is good and his opponent(s) chicken out on the betting.

[hellite]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with you all who think that this has been horribly played.
First, the pre-flop call is a no-brainer. He's small blind with two players already in, maybe three if BB calls. He certainly has the odds to try to hit a set. Small pairs are much more playable than most people realize since they are easy to play post-flop.
And the call on the flop isn't all that bad either. One, the raiser will bet even with a hand like AQ. His 55 may be best. And if it is AND his opponent(s) make a mistake of checking the turn, he may be able to win the pot. add to that the small chance he may hit a set on the turn. Given the $ already in the pot, it is not at all unreasonable to throw in one more small bet just in case.
The only reasonable argument against that call is that there are two players behind him to act. This would push the flop call to -EV, but I don't think by much.

In fact, I would argue that if you automatically play contrary to this all the time (auto-folding SB in this situation or auto folding on the flop without thinking thru the possibilities), you are giving up significant profit potential (though it will help to reduce your variance).

(and it seems to me that the best high limit players don't shy away from the high-variance but profitable (even if marginally so) plays.)

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason small pairs "are easy to play" postflop is because the majority of the time you will be folding. Calling a tight early raiser with this hand from the small blind is far from automatic. In fact, many consider this a clear error. Regardless, unless you are HU the flop call is horrible and is clearly a money loser. Now, if preflop raiser does not have a hand, he can take a free card on the turn if he choses or make you guess and invest 2BB (on a checkraise I presume) after he bets in this rather small pot. There are so many cards that can ruin your hand on the turn and river IF YOU ARE NOT ALREADY BEAT that merely calling this flop is absurd. If I call this from the sb I have to checkraise this flop and lead the turn against most opponents.

[DonCaspero]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're missing the point. His hand is not good enough to warrant putting more than one small bet in. And he has no intention of bluffing at the pot.

The call was a long shot meant solely to preserve his equity in the pot. If anyone bets the turn, he folds. He's hopping to either get real lucky and hit a set, or his hand is good and his opponent(s) chicken out on the betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I expect the "expert" to be playing in a game where people do not "chicken out"!!

[TaintedRogue]

[ QUOTE ]
expert is in is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

UTG calls, a tough player raises, expert calls and big blind calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Expert checks, BB checks, UTG checks, tough player bets, expert calls...

is this call an expert play or lapse in judgement?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a bad call preflop. You are going to lose money long term playing small pairs in a raised pot against a few opponents.

88% of the time you will not flop a set.
.88 * 1 BB = -.88

12% of the time you flop a set, however, empirical studies with TTH shows that you will be outdrawn 12% of the time.

You have 3 opponents here. Let's say you get 2 opponents calling 3 bets on the Flop, 2 calling 2 bets on the Turn and 1 calling 1 bet on the River. That's a lot of action for so few opponents, and totals 8 BBs to go with the 3 BBs they posted preflop - 11 BBs you win.

(.12*.88)*11 = +1.16 BBs

When you are outdrawn, you pay 1BB preflop. 1.5 BBs on the Flop, 2 BBs on the Turn and 1 BB on the River.

(.12*.12)*5.5 = -.08 BB

1.16 - .08 - .88 = .20 BBs * 100 instances = 20 BB +EV

In your case, you are not going to see that much action. In fact, in most all cases, we are not going to see that much action against so few opponents.

I see it as an easy fold pre-flop.

[TaintedRogue]

You're in the SB, so it's .75 BBs pre-flop;

.75*.88 = .66

1.16 - .08 - .66 = .42 * 100 instances = 42 BBs.

Still, you would need to be able to win a considerable amount of those pots unimproved in order for this to be a +EV play long-term.