Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?

#1 11-30-2005, 02:31 AM

So everything worked out fine here and I took down a nice pot. However, the hand got me wondering whether this is a good spot to wait for the turn to protect. The pot is huge, and I think it's likely I can boot out straight draws by raising the turn.

Thoughts? Is it worth forgoing the flop value to protect vs the weaker draws?

READS
Dream table - 4 loose/passives, villain and a couple of TAGS

Villain (pf raiser) is semi-loose/aggressive - 30/13/2 after 200 hands

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 folds, MP1 calls, 1 folds, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (16.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP3 folds.

Turn: (11.70 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (14.70 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 16.70 BB.

BWebb · #2 11-30-2005, 02:37 AM

Yeah, I think that's a very nice spot for it. With your raise on the flop, people with gutshots are still getting about 10-1 immediate odds on the call, more if others call. You have a preflop and flop aggressor to your immediate right, so chances are good he will follow with a bet on the turn and nobody can call between you two.

Terrabon98 · #3 11-30-2005, 02:37 AM

You played it fine. You're charging the gutshot straight draws two bets, as well as the flush draws. If you want to wait until the turn (which i wouldn't with this hand, though id be more willing to with a set), be willing to slow down if paint or a spade falls

#4 11-30-2005, 02:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I think that's a very nice spot for it. With your raise on the flop, people with gutshots are still getting about 10-1 immediate odds on the call, more if others call. You have a preflop and flop aggressor to your immediate right, so chances are good he will follow with a bet on the turn and nobody can call between you two.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree 100% with this statement, this is a wonderful spot to wait til the turn to raise since even if you do raise this flop all gutshots will be able to call profitably, since a flop raise cannot protect your hand you are better off waiting til the turn to raise. Arguments can be made for raising this flop for value but when the pot gets this big it is critical you play your hand in such a way that gives you the best chance of winning the pot. Wait til the turn to raise and force the gutshots to fold correctly or call incorrectly.

sweetjazz · #5 11-30-2005, 03:13 AM

It's close. When you raise the pot, there is a chance that it gets 3-bet and you can cap. (It's less likely you'll get 3-bet on the turn.) It's also possible that the villain will bet the flop, but check the turn after getting so many callers. (Given that he folded to your flop raise, that looks like quite possible in this particular hand.)

Also, you're generally not going to get gutshots to fold on the turn. The best you can do is to make their calls on the turn unprofitable for them.

So the question is really whether you are getting more value by raising the flop or waiting to raise the turn. If everything works out as you'd like, you'll get a little more value out of waiting for the turn. But anytime you miss a chance to cap the flop (even if MP3 has AK too) or you don't get to raise the turn, you lose quite a bit of value.

I honestly don't think these kind of decisions make or break small stakes players, but I would tend to just raise the flop here.

PS - Many bad players who would actually ditch their gutshots at any point before the river will fold when you raise the flop. They learned a general rule ("don't draw to inside straights") and you profit off of their mistake in this particular hand.

solidswede · #6 11-30-2005, 04:20 AM

Raise flop, pocket pairs get ~correct odds to call one bet but not 2. Make them pay for 2 outers.

housenuts · #7 11-30-2005, 05:38 AM

Correct me if my math is wrong,

Say buddy has a gutshot on the flop. Ignoring implied odds he needs 10.5:1 to call.
16.4 sb + bet + raise = 19.4 sb. Add in the original bettor who calls and it's 20.4 sb.

This means the gutshot will be getting just slightly less than 10.5:1 but the implied odds more than cover for it. He also has another chance to correctly call on the turn assuming there is no raise.

This post has been enlightening for me. I think by default I would have folded QJ, QT, or JT here just because it didn't seem right to call a raise with a gutshot. I never bothered to do the math. Note however that because of the 2 spades, the gutshot may in fact only have 3 outs.
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As for the hand I like to simply raise the flop. As sweetjazz says
[ QUOTE ]
PS - Many bad players (i guess this includes me)who would actually ditch their gutshots at any point before the river will fold when you raise the flop. They learned a general rule ("don't draw to inside straights") and you profit off of their mistake in this particular hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

It also may get 3-bet which adds much more value, than making people incorrectly call on the turn would.

#8 11-30-2005, 06:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Correct me if my math is wrong,

Say buddy has a gutshot on the flop. Ignoring implied odds he needs 10.5:1 to call.
16.4 sb + bet + raise = 19.4 sb. Add in the original bettor who calls and it's 20.4 sb.

This means the gutshot will be getting just slightly less than 10.5:1 but the implied odds more than cover for it. He also has another chance to correctly call on the turn assuming there is no raise.

This post has been enlightening for me. I think by default I would have folded QJ, QT, or JT here just because it didn't seem right to call a raise with a gutshot. I never bothered to do the math. Note however that because of the 2 spades, the gutshot may in fact only have 3 outs.
--------

As for the hand I like to simply raise the flop. As sweetjazz says
[ QUOTE ]
PS - Many bad players (i guess this includes me)who would actually ditch their gutshots at any point before the river will fold when you raise the flop. They learned a general rule ("don't draw to inside straights") and you profit off of their mistake in this particular hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

It also may get 3-bet which adds much more value, than making people incorrectly call on the turn would.

[/ QUOTE ]
You have brought up a very important point, if you believe that the opponents you are playing against will incorrectly fold their gutshots if you raise the flop then by all means raise the flop. In the games I play in it seems that people are much more apt to incorrectly call, then to incorrectly fold, but there are always acceptions.

BWebb · #9 11-30-2005, 11:23 AM

I think it was alluded to in another post but I think it is important. A raise on the flop not only gives players the odds to call profitably on the flop with their gutshots, but it also gives players the odds to call profitably on the TURN with their gutshots. Some players might fold gutshots to a raise on the flop, but no usually. This is a standard wait for the turn hand. If it is not, I don't know what is.

#10 11-30-2005, 11:29 AM

I think you played it fine. You got two people to fold on the flop (including the initial bettor). What if one of them had a 5? This would have been a bad beat post, and you would have been pissed with yourself for not raising that flop.