Selective aggression hand I don't agree with.

[bernie]

You're UTG with A5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

6 to the flop.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB opens the betting. Author says to call. I think this is a raise. I'd agree if you had undercards, then you want to keep customers in and get paid off a little more as that's your only real redraw.

1) You have an A overcard

2) You could possibly knock out a better hand making your A high good, and/or cleaning up an A out.

3) Calling gives any 2 cards odds to call if A high might be good at this time. It really gives a bottom pair odds when you might knock them out with a raise. See 2 above.

4) If only called on the flop, you have good bluff potential should another K hit on the turn. Thin, but possible. There are better boards for this.

5) If some call behind you, they may well pay you off just as well if you hit your flush. If some call behind you, the raise turns to value. Especially if you're A is a clean out. With one it's about even money.

He says the pot is small, only 6 bets. To me, 6 bets in an unraised pot with 5 opponents is enough to start cleaning up outs and maximizing my chances. Actually 7 bets after the initial flop bet. If you just call, many hands, other draws can easily call getting 8-1 or better.

The BB could also be betting a lesser draw as well as a K. If he has a K, he'd be hard pressed to 3 bet your raise given that he got raised by an EP who looks like he'd have a bigger kicker than normal given his position.

I also think you will get called and checked to on the turn much more often than you will be 3 bet in this spot.

Thoughts? Or is it close enough to go either way?

b

[Stork]

I think it's very close either way, and probably depends on table texture too. The thing is, with 6 people seeing the flop, you're getting a great price for your flush draw. So whether to raise here or not depends upon if EP will bet with more than just top pair here, and if a middle pairish hand would call 1, but not 2 bets on the flop.

[bernie]

But couldn't you also be in a win-win situation by raising? If others call behind you, it's value on your draw. If they fold, you may have the best hand and/or only have to beat 1 player instead of 5.

b

[Stork]

But by raising you might end up isolating yourself against a better hand. It comes down to pot size. If the pot was raised preflop, then a flop raise is clear cut because there will be 16 or bets in it, and you get much more value from folding smaller pairs and cleaning up ace outs.

As the situation is, I'd estimate that raising gives you a 45% chance to win, and you'd be investing 50% of the money on the flop twice. Calling would on average have you winning about 37% of the time, putting in 25% of the money. These numbers are just guesses, but I think they are accurate. As it stands, I think calling is slightly better here.

On the other hand, if you knew a couple players would come along for a double bet, then you have a clear raise.

[shadow29]

[ QUOTE ]
[I]f you knew a couple players would come along for a double bet, then you have a clear raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.

Basically what this comes down to is whether you want to win a huge pot with an incredible hand, or try and win a small pot with a marginal hand (which may not even be best. Moreover, Stork correctly points out that when you raise here you'll get isolated against a better hand a significant portion of the time.

Your numbers look pretty good, btw.

John

[easypete]

[ QUOTE ]
1) You have an A overcard

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes... yes you do. How do you think this helps out? Are you trying for an Ace to hit on turn? Sure this is one of your outs, but with 6 seeing flop, you may have kicker issues and you're dreaming a little if you think that A-hi will win when 6 see the flop. In this case, you are roughly 1.9:1 on making the flush... you are better than the number of players in the pot... Raising here would be (IMO) foolish to try to eliminate the rest of the field. Let the field call... The ideal situation here is that the player on your left raises... In this case... 3-bet when it comes back to you... In this situation, I want to see all 6 players see this flop capped... This is much more +EV than raising to try and win with A-high.

[ QUOTE ]
2) You could possibly knock out a better hand making your A high good, and/or cleaning up an A out.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.... I don't believe you can. So don't. Even, in an ideal world, you could do that... it's much more +EV to go for the flush.

[ QUOTE ]
3) Calling gives any 2 cards odds to call if A high might be good at this time. It really gives a bottom pair odds when you might knock them out with a raise. See 2 above.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not the point of this exercise... The point is to go for the flush. OK... since you're stuck on this concept, let's look at 2 scenarios.

Scenario 1.
You raise... you eliminate the field and get it heads-up. Let's be generous here and say that you're good about 50% (35% for the flush and throuwing in about 15% for an ace and winning w/ A-high) of the time here. (EP player betting into 5 opponents usually means he beats A-high).

You get this heads-up and win 6SB pf (4SB on flop) and about 1BB after the flop, netting you about 3.5BB/hand 50% of the time. You will lose 1.5BB/hand the other 50% of the time (assuming the EP player will never 3-bet or bet the turn). So you net 2BB/2 hands or 1BB/hand. Cool... that's nice.

Scenario 2:

You call... let's say that 4 see the turn. It's hard to tell what happens here... the EP player is betting the hand for you. There may be a raise from LP, it may be capped on the flop, it may be bet on the turn and raised... There may be 2 seeing the river, all 6 may be seeing the river... but there is no disputing that this pot will be bigger. Right away, on the turn, you will have a 10SB (5BB) pot minimum. Same as your scenario. Only this time, there will be a bet on the turn. This is almost guarunteed. If 3 see the river, the pot is already at 8BB. If you miss, you fold. You've invested 2BB and will lose roughly 2 times in 3 attempts here. When you win, you will win at least 10BB.

So 10BB 35% of the time won... 2BB lost 65% of the time. That's 2.2BB/hand won. Much better than the 1BB/hand you're getting by raising.

[ QUOTE ]
4) If only called on the flop, you have good bluff potential should another K hit on the turn. Thin, but possible. There are better boards for this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. But you still have good odds to call. When the board pairs on this turn, you can be behind, but that will only be the case a few times. It should be considered in later betting rounds about how far you will take this. Also, be careful, if you raise this and someone does have a K, you will be in dire trouble, thus increasing your losses.

[ QUOTE ]
5) If some call behind you, they may well pay you off just as well if you hit your flush. If some call behind you, the raise turns to value. Especially if you're A is a clean out. With one it's about even money.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a little confusing. I want callers behind me on this flop... I would like to see it capped... as long as 2 opponents see the flop capped with you, it will be about neutral EV. 3 or more it will be +EV. As for the turn... You will have odds to call an EP bet and a LP raise.

[ QUOTE ]
He says the pot is small, only 6 bets. To me, 6 bets in an unraised pot with 5 opponents is enough to start cleaning up outs and maximizing my chances. Actually 7 bets after the initial flop bet. If you just call, many hands, other draws can easily call getting 8-1 or better.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot isn't really all that small... I would take it if I could... but this exercise is about maximizing your wins, not trying to win a small pot.

There's an example in a 2+2 book, can't place my finger on it right now, but think it was either PoP or Inside the Poker Mind, that showed the strenght of AA. AA HU is about an 80% favorite, but drops w/ more opponents. For a long time, I hated seeing 4 to a flop w/ AA... Now I like seeing everybody on the table see the flop w/ me. Sure, you're % of wins will drop, but when you win... you will win big. Maximize your wins. That's the key.

[ QUOTE ]
The BB could also be betting a lesser draw as well as a K. If he has a K, he'd be hard pressed to 3 bet your raise given that he got raised by an EP who looks like he'd have a bigger kicker than normal given his position.

[/ QUOTE ]

If BB has a K, you don't fear a 3-bet? That's just plain crazy. I don't know many players at 2/4 and above that will lead out and not 3-bet a K on a 2-flushed board. It's SOP for me as well as others.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
In this situation, I want to see all 6 players see this flop capped..

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone behind you willing to go to the turn capped isn't going to fold for 2 bets cold. Not to mention, if it goes 6 ways capped on this board, and this table doesn't have a history of maniacal play, how many outs do you really think you have? Not saying it's not value to have it capped, it certainly is, but not as much as you may be thinking.

[ QUOTE ]
Are you trying for an Ace to hit on turn? Sure this is one of your outs, but with 6 seeing flop, you may have kicker issues and you're dreaming a little if you think that A-hi will win when 6 see the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kicker issues is one prime reason Im mentioning the A high.

[ QUOTE ]
If BB has a K, you don't fear a 3-bet? That's just plain crazy. I don't know many players at 2/4 and above that will lead out and not 3-bet a K on a 2-flushed board. It's SOP for me as well as others

[/ QUOTE ]

I know many, typical players-non 2+2ers, that wouldn't 3 bet this board in this spot. Not if he has a small kicker he isn't. What exactly is he putting you on when you raise? Not a draw. And given the postion, he'd more likely figure a decent sized kicker. Anyone jamming this with Kx is usually blowing money unless they knew for sure you didn't have Kx beat. It looks like a protection raise.

The point is, it's mainly a drawless board other than the flush draw. Yes, I think you can get out a smaller pair by a raise on the flop. Whether it's a PP or small pair from the board. Likely the only folders would be the ones who'd fold to 1 bet anyways. Look at the board, what are they drawing to?

Im looking at the closeness between just calling and raising. I think it's close.

[ QUOTE ]
The pot isn't really all that small... I would take it if I could... but this exercise is about maximizing your wins, not trying to win a small pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot isn't all that small, yet you're not trying to win a small pot. Is it small, or isn't it?

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically what this comes down to is whether you want to win a huge pot with an incredible hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the board and your position, I don't think this pot is going to be that huge.

If the flush draw gets there on the turn, you're calling if someone bets into you hoping it gets raised behind you.

However, a case could be made for the ones who'd call a flop bet and fold on the turn. Along with some who would fold an A anyways figuring they are only drawing to 2 outs. On this board, there's not really alot to draw to unless you have the K or the flush draw.

b

[shadow29]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In this situation, I want to see all 6 players see this flop capped..

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone behind you willing to go to the turn capped isn't going to fold for 2 bets cold. Not to mention, if it goes 6 ways capped on this board, and this table doesn't have a history of maniacal play, how many outs do you really think you have? Not saying it's not value to have it capped, it certainly is, but not as much as you may be thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you misunderstood. Our equity edge is quite high here, thus the more bets that get put in, the better it is for us. I'm sure you understand this. When easypete says that he wants to see it capped, he's talking only about the equity of the hand. Recognizing that anyone who is there for the cap isn't likely to fold for two bets cold isn't part of the discussion. We don't know if it's going to be capped. We want as many people in the pot as possible, so that when the flush hits we win a big pot. Forcing the field to call two bets cold is not a good way to maximize your expectation with this hand, because it is quite likely that a raise could you leave you heads up (in which case you don't have an equity edge (if you're only counting your flush outs)) or heads up and 3-bet--isolated against a better hand.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are you trying for an Ace to hit on turn? Sure this is one of your outs, but with 6 seeing flop, you may have kicker issues and you're dreaming a little if you think that A-hi will win when 6 see the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kicker issues is one prime reason Im mentioning the A high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. But what I'm saying is that I'm going to pass up on the chance to win the current pot with A high in order to win a huge pot with the nut flush.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If BB has a K, you don't fear a 3-bet? That's just plain crazy. I don't know many players at 2/4 and above that will lead out and not 3-bet a K on a 2-flushed board. It's SOP for me as well as others

[/ QUOTE ]

I know many, typical players-non 2+2ers, that wouldn't 3 bet this board in this spot. Not if he has a small kicker he isn't. What exactly is he putting you on when you raise? Not a draw. And given the postion, he'd more likely figure a decent sized kicker. Anyone jamming this with Kx is usually blowing money unless they knew for sure you didn't have Kx beat. It looks like a protection raise.

The point is, it's mainly a drawless board other than the flush draw. Yes, I think you can get out a smaller pair by a raise on the flop. Whether it's a PP or small pair from the board. Likely the only folders would be the ones who'd fold to 1 bet anyways. Look at the board, what are they drawing to?

Im looking at the closeness between just calling and raising. I think it's close.

[/ QUOTE ]

See above.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The pot isn't really all that small... I would take it if I could... but this exercise is about maximizing your wins, not trying to win a small pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot isn't all that small, yet you're not trying to win a small pot. Is it small, or isn't it?

b

[/ QUOTE ]

It's small compared to what it could be if we simply call and then hit the flush. We're passing up on winning a relatively small pot in order to win a huge pot.

I'm really glad this article is sparking discussion, however. Keep it comin'.

[shadow29]

[ QUOTE ]
Given the board and your position, I don't think this pot is going to be that huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a 30bb pot huge, no. But, relative to the current pot, it will be huge.