KK on the turn

QTip · #1 07-07-2005, 10:44 PM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 4 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, MP3 folds, Button 3-bets, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button bets, Hero raises

The button here was extremely loose and quite aggressive.

UTG is fairly decent. I say this because he was very tight, and didn't raise enough PF and aggression wasn't quite what it should be postflop. After his cap PF, I think I'm running into a big pocket pair here the vast majority of the time. Kings are highly unlikely, Queens maybe, but when 1 fell on the turn and he checked, I was quite certain it was going to be a check/raise or he had pocket Aces.

I thought I'd take shot and kicking him out if he had Aces or Kings. Would anyone of you have folded your big pair to 2 large here?

Sure, the button might have the 8, but might not.

I thought it was worth a shot. I get 3 bet by UTG, it's QQ, and I'm done.

What do you think?

Two_Slick · #2 07-07-2005, 11:19 PM

Given the pf cap from UTG followed by raise on the flop I'd put him on 10's or better... however, he could attempting isolate to the LAG. I don't know about the turn bet with such a high likelihood he may call or re-raise with a better hand. I think I call on the turn and check/call the river (b/c I don't see either player folding at this point).

pokerjunky · #3 07-08-2005, 12:42 AM

It's close but I'm leaning more towards just calling. For this play to be good not only does your hand have to beat the button's but it also has to get UTG to fold a better hand often enough to make it profitable.

Of course the pot is pretty large and UTG only needs to fold a better or equal hand roughly one time in eight, but I'm not sure how you would factor in the fact that button may already have you beat. Plus UTG may have been planning to fold AK anyway if thats what he had.

I'm interested to see what others think.

QTip · #4 07-08-2005, 09:00 AM

Bump for the day crowd

thejameser · #5 07-08-2005, 09:10 AM

did you fold to the 3bet?

Bascule · #6 07-08-2005, 09:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]

The button here was extremely loose and quite aggressive.

I thought I'd take shot and kicking him out if he had Aces or Kings. Would anyone of you have folded your big pair to 2 large here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Whether or not I would fold would depend on my perception of you. Holding AA, I wouldn't be worried enough about the button to fold. Your preflop play marks you with a big pocket pair, and it's 4 times more likely that you're holding KK or JJ than QQ. So I'd fold only if I saw you as a rock. Given your likely TAG-like stats, I wouldn't be folding AA here.

But of course, UTG could lay down AA. In my more weak-tight days I might have folded here. If we say that UTG's range is JJ-AA, he's holding AA 6/(6+1+3+6) = 37% of the time. Given your read of the button, folding the turn seems out of the question, so you're risking 1BB to pick up the 16.5BB pot when UTG folds AA and the button doesn't have an 8. A crude calculation says this will be profitable when

16.5 * 0.37 * p(UTG folds AA) * p(no 8 for button) > 1

So, I guess this will be profitable if UTG will fold AA here about 1/3 of the time. How weak is UTG?

jskills · #7 07-08-2005, 10:02 AM

I like it. I think your plan for the turn is dead on. He's going to 3-bet if he's got QQ.

Given your read on UTG, I suspect you're looking at AA , KK, or (maybe) JJ otherwise. As you said, KK is less likely. But if UTG sticks around, I'd still have to check / call the river on a non-ace.

jjacky · #8 07-08-2005, 10:09 AM

i can't imagine that UTG would lay down AA in this situation. not even 10% of the time.

Moozh · #9 07-08-2005, 11:40 AM

I don't like it. If UTG is overly tight, he's holding AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, and maaaaybe TT. You beat AK, JJ, and the ever so unlikely TT.

When you check-raise the turn forcing him to call two cold, he's folding JJ, AK and TT. He's definitley not folding AA, KK, or QQ. That's a bad value raise.

If he's that tight, you might just want to call down from the turn.

EDIT: Since UTG checked the turn, it's looking very much like you have him beat (if he's scared of the Q). Thus, I'd lean towards either calling the turn and betting the river (maybe hoping that the button raises), or just check/calling both hoping for the overcall.

DMBFan23 · #10 07-08-2005, 12:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 4 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, MP3 folds, Button 3-bets, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button bets, Hero raises

The button here was extremely loose and quite aggressive.

UTG is fairly decent. I say this because he was very tight, and didn't raise enough PF and aggression wasn't quite what it should be postflop. After his cap PF, I think I'm running into a big pocket pair here the vast majority of the time. Kings are highly unlikely, Queens maybe, but when 1 fell on the turn and he checked, I was quite certain it was going to be a check/raise or he had pocket Aces.

I thought I'd take shot and kicking him out if he had Aces or Kings. Would anyone of you have folded your big pair to 2 large here?

I thought it was worth a shot. I get 3 bet by UTG, it's QQ, and I'm done.

What do you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

did you call the flop 3 bet to see if UTG would cap, or to set up the turn c/r? once he doesn't cap, I really don't think he has AA. once he checks the turn, I am thinking AK, or like JJ. also QQ is possible but without a read I tend not to assume. AA is possible too I suppose but I'm not going to go into a shell because he MIGHT have it...not yet.

Sure, the button might have the 8, but might not. maybe like A8s, 99, 77, TT, 89s, 44 either way the pot is so big that folding is bad IMO.

turn is sweet. I would probably call and draw if UTG 3 bets here, we'd have odds to spike a K unless button is likely to cap (anyone want to do tha math on how often he has to cap for us to have outs? it would have to factor in our sweet implied odds against anyone willing to cap this turn). if UTG folds and button 3 bets, I would call down.

What was your turn plan if UTG capped the flop?