TPTK with ATo against a 3-bet

Guido · #1 01-10-2005, 06:56 AM

CO has a PFR of about 16%, a VP$IP of 39%, a WtSD of 35% and a total aggression factor of about 1 after 350 hands.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed)

Preflop: Guido is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Guido raises, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, Guido calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Guido checks, CO bets, Guido raises, CO calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Guido bets, CO raises, Guido?

Thanks,

Guido

stripsqueez · #2 01-10-2005, 07:15 AM

its a big fold

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

CardSharpCook · #3 01-10-2005, 07:38 AM

could be a semi-bluff with AK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]?

his aggression factor is low enough to make any bet a warning sign. His VPIP is high enough to make A8 a possibility. His PFR is high enough that he could have QJo. Yeah, I fold this one. Your best hope IMHO is that you are a 3:1 favorite and that is if he has AKs, AQs, or AJs ever other likely hand has you beat.

Benjamin · #4 01-10-2005, 12:57 PM

I'd call down probably close to 100% of the time. But that is probably a weakness in my game: not folding enough. And I don't use post-flop stats enough to help me.

In this case QJ seems unlikely, since the guy's 16% PFR doesn't seem to leave room for consistently 3-betting QJ. An overpair is entirely possible, but unless it's AA, you have 5 outs, and you're getting 8:1 on an 8.2:1 draw, not bad when you have a real chance of being ahead as well. A set of 9s or 10s is possible, but not very likely. An 8 is unlikely. Something like AQ is possible, with the gutshot and overs, or AJs for the openender and overs. 2 flush draws are out there. 77 maybe a possiblity.

It comes down to his postflop aggression being on the low side that must swing this to a fold for strip. But w/ 40% VPIP, there are a lot of hands that he plays, and the calls on his mediocre hands/draws can disguise aggression with better cards and bluffs.

I find it hard to believe that a 10/20 player with those preflop numbers won't semibluff in this spot with some regularity, despite the total aggression being lowish. (BTW is the that aggression figure including preflop numbers or not?)

So, between my good draw to beat KK-JJ, and what I perceive to be a decent chance of a semibluff on this draw-heavy board, I'd call him down.

B.

helpmeout · #5 01-10-2005, 06:53 PM

Easy fold, his AF is too low to suggest that he could be semi bluffing or being a bit agro with KTo or something.

Guido · #6 01-10-2005, 09:16 PM

I folded...

Thanks,

Guido

aslowjoe · #7 01-10-2005, 09:32 PM

A person with a 40% or higher VPIP obviuosly misses a lot more flops and has no opportunity to bet compared to 20% VPIP player. So if the aggresion factors were the same. The 40% vpip would be actually much more aggresive.
Is my assumption correct? Since my math skills stop at counting outs maybe somebody could elaborate.
Joe

Benjamin · #8 01-10-2005, 11:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A person with a 40% or higher VPIP obviuosly misses a lot more flops and has no opportunity to bet compared to 20% VPIP player. So if the aggresion factors were the same. The 40% vpip would be actually much more aggresive.
Is my assumption correct? Since my math skills stop at counting outs maybe somebody could elaborate.
Joe

[/ QUOTE ]

AF is (bet% + raise% )/ call%. So, he could bet and raise a lot if he also called a lot. Given he sees twice as many flops as a typical TAG, he has a lot of room to call to pad out his raising + betting.

Certainly seems possible that someone could have an AF of 1 while incorporating a fairly regular semibluff in their game. Though it's less likely than someone who has a higher AF.

B.

mxyzptlk · #9 01-10-2005, 11:13 PM

Turn raises are always bad news when you CR the flop and lead the turn. This is an easy fold. The only river card you really like here is another ten. An ace maybe, but I wouldn't feel good about it hitting. He could even have QJ of diamonds or clubs. You are almost certainly behind on the turn. He has a big PP or something that fits well with that board. Worst case: a better made hand with some redraws.

TJD · #10 01-11-2005, 06:14 AM

These sort of things were covered in the "getting to know you" threads that elicited no interest since they did not include a bad beat or big downswing section [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

In essence AF is a pretty useless tool except at the extremes. If AF is very high or very low then there is little room for doubt. Anywhere from just over 1 to 2 or so and it could be absolutely anything.

I use AF of course since it is the only PT tool available but I quickly rerate using my own criteria as soon as I get enough hands.

I have people with AF's of about 1 who are regular bluffers and bet LOTS and people with AF of 2.25 who bet and raise very little and NEVER bluff.

T