Hands you hate to admit you played (LC)

[tansoku]

I have to come clean on this one. It was a pure steal attempt that went very bad, then very good for me.

I'm in the SB with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Folded to me and I RAISE.
BB 3bets it.
My hand is way too far into the cookie jar to make a graceful exit so I call, not wanting to be a complete wuss.

Flop: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]
I check, he bets, I call.

Turn: T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I check, planning to raise, he checks..DOH.

River: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I bet, he raises, I 3bet, he calls and he mucks A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I expected a wave of chat insults, but to his credit none came.

[Robk]

if you had 94s how would you play this flop? what about K3?

[kiddo]

Tilt preflop.
Bad flopplay.
Bad turnplay.
Standard riverplay.

[Nietzsche]

Isn't 2+2 a confession forum? This is where we post the hands we played like idiots. It's a cleansing thing [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[tansoku]

[ QUOTE ]
if you had 94s how would you play this flop? what about K3?

[/ QUOTE ]

Lead both flops, call a raise getting 9:1..

I checked the flop because of his 3bet I felt there was a very good chance that the flop totally missed him.
Also, he seemed pretty tight, and even if he did just call a flop bet, he'd likely fold the turn UI. Rag flop, free cards really only help him improve to a second best hand, and a flop lead by him was automatic.
If I chk-raise the flop, he would likely fold overcards and/or fold the turn UI.
With the turn I felt there was a decent chance he'd take another stab at it trying to get me to fold.
I was lucky that my turn check made him think I had nothing, and when I lead the river he obviously put me on Qx, which he out-kicked.

If there was ever a flop for slowplaying, I thought this was it...

[waffle]

You slowplay if you want extra action from hands that would have folded if you played them fast. Your opponent thinks you're FOS (gee, i wonder why), your hand is well disguised. You don't need to induce extra action from him.

You missed a bunch of bets on the flop and turn.

[tansoku]

[ QUOTE ]
You missed a bunch of bets on the flop and turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that’s what I thought at first:
He has overcards here more often than high PP's or hands that hit this flop.
He wasn't a lag nor aggressive postflop that I could tell (as evidenced by his turn check). He didn't seem like the type to bluff raise the flop with overcards.
I'd estimate his 3betting range pflop in this spot, facing a raise from the SB to be (being conservative):
77-AA = 6 x 8 = 48
AT+ = 16 x 4 = 64
KT+ = 16 x 3 = 48
QJs = 4
Even without considering some other Ax/Kx/Jx type hands here he's at least 2x as likely to not have a hand he'd raise the flop with. But he'll autobet the flop with them always if I check.

If he's 'behind' 70% of the time, which implies that he bets the flop, and at least 1 BB goes in on the turn/river I make 1.5 BB.
He has 6 outs, 24% of the time he improves on the turn/river and I get the result here which is 3BB (either 2 on the turn when I chk-raise and he calls down, or the river play this time).
So that's around 2.25 BB using the line I took.

If I lead the flop in this case he calls 1 SB. If I then lead the turn he'll fold UI, 13% of the time he improves on the turn and raises, I 3bet, he calls down, I make 4BB.

So .5 BB + .13 x 4BB = 1BB. or a -1.25BB difference.
He’s getting 4:1 on the turn call, so maybe he calls this 75% of the time and folds the river UI?

.75 x 1.5 + .25 x .5 = 1.625 or about -.63 BB difference.

Add to it the 13% of the time he improves on the river and I get 3BB x .13 = .39, or about:
.75 x (1.5 + .39) + .25 x .5 = 1.64

So how many bets go in when he has a hand?
I lead the flop, he raises, I call or 3bet?
If I 3bet and lead the turn he calls down? = 3BB net.
If I call and chk-raise the turn and he calls down = 3.5 BB

So, the line I took: 70% x 2.25 + 30% x 3 = 2.5 BB
Playing it fast: 70% x 1.64 + 30% x 3.5 = 2.2 BB

Assuming my assumptions are anywhere close to good, it looks better..

[ALL1N]

This is not a "maths" situation. It is simply a matter of 3 things:
1. There are a lot of nice looking hands that like to fastplay the flop with you (such as pair+straight draw).
2. The board could deteriorate (4-straight), causing you to lose action from a lot of hands.
3. Your opponent will still feel the need to showdown if you fastplay, because you could easily be semibluffing a straight draw.

Fastplaying the flopped straight here is the best play here by no short measure, just as it nearly always is HU.

[Robk]

[ QUOTE ]
Lead both flops, call a raise getting 9:1..

[/ QUOTE ]

well most would checkraise with them, but betting out is almost equivalent. my point is that on this flop youre getting aggressive with all your marginal hands. that means that your check and call gives away too much information. your opponent checking AQ on this turn was a great play against you. (whether he made it for the right reasons, who knows.)

youre thinking of ways to maximize your value if this hand was played in a vacuum. (and even then checkraising the flop might still be better as you you point out later.)

btw ALLIN's post basically covered what i was going to say. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]