Raise this turn?

Thanks to Aaron for the converter.

PokerRoom 1/2 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> PokerRoom Converter at BonusHunting.net

Preflop: Hero is Hero with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: (4.5 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, CO calls.

River: (11.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, CO folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

On the turn I have OESD, flush draw and two overs. I estimate about 20 outs (is this too many) which gives my about 43% equity. (even 19 or 18 outs is still ~40%) If both call then I'm all right, but if only one calls I don't lose much equity and may actually help my hand. Is this standard?

[Shargaas]

One line to consider is raising the flop bet. You have the flush draw and 2 overcards, but you'd still like to see a lot of hands fold (eg. AJ, KT). You'll probably still get 2 or 3 calls, so the raise is for value, and as an added bonus, if you miss on the turn, you may get the chance to take a free card.

With this turn card, if it was checked to me, I would bet it out, but if bet into again on the turn, I would just call, with only one more card to come. If you hit the straight or flush, it is still likely that someone will bet into you on the river, and then you can raise (esp. with the str8 which a lot of players seem to miss). Of course you can fold to the bet if you miss, as in the hand itself.

In advance of the arguments to come because I'm sure someone will say 3bet the flop.

I like the flop call.

I think you make more [when you make your hand on the turn] from your relative position to the aggressor, than by pushing your small edge on the flop.

EDIT to say: Same applies on the turn to river.

I think I just call on the turn. While your equity is ok, I think that you make more by just flat calling as you are more likely to bet bet into on the river when you make your hand, allowing you to raise.

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One line to consider is raising the flop bet.

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I thought about this. But I figured the pot was so small, I thought calling was the best way to build a pot.
My logic was [with the pot so small] that overcards are making a mistake calling anyway.

Thoughts?

[Shargaas]

I like raising as there will usually be a number of callers anyway making this a good value raise, and there is a good chance that everyone checks the turn no matter what and I can take a free card if needed. True, overcards are probably already making a mistake, but we may as well make the mistake as large as possible.

[gharp]

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I estimate about 20 outs (is this too many)

[/ QUOTE ]
This is too many. 18 looks better, and even that might be too high. Your flush and straight outs are good (15 total, don't double-count the Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) and add on three outs for overcards. That might be generous since your overcards make some straights likely, plus T9 and J9 (which reverse dominate you) are both possibilities for the villains. So maybe 17 outs is better.

Either way, with 17 or 18 your certainly seeing the river but your equity edge in a 3-way pot is thin. I like tehox' line better -- call now so you can raise him on the river when you hit.



&lt;bit off topic...&gt;

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PokerRoom Converter at BonusHunting.net

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I've never seen this converter used and the site seems to be down now. Is this a good one?

Well, maybe I shouldn't use it because:

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Hero is Hero with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

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Hmm...that's almost poetic...

[imported_The Vibesman]

I probably just call the turn. BB is with you until the end, and you need to improve to win. If you make your hand on the river hopefully he bets into you again and you can raise there.

I like the call on the flop.

[car ramrod]

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I think I just call on the turn. While your equity is ok, I think that you make more by just flat calling as you are more likely to bet bet into on the river when you make your hand, allowing you to raise.


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I like this

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I just call on the turn. While your equity is ok, I think that you make more by just flat calling as you are more likely to bet bet into on the river when you make your hand, allowing you to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
let's assume that we have a generous 40% equity on the turn.
also assume that if we raise, they both check call the river (and we assume our made hand is good 100% of the time).

40% of the time we win their 2 extra bets they put in after we raise, 60% of the time we lose our 2, and 40% of the time we will win 2 more on the river:
0.4(2) - 0.6(2) + 0.4(2) = 0.4

now look at just calling. let's only assume that we'll get 2 bets from them on the river when we improve. this would happen if bb bets, the other guy folds, we raise, and he calls.

so, 40% of the time we win 2 bets on the river. 60% of the time we lose our turn bet:
0.4(2) - 0.6(1) = 0.2

i think this shows that calling is better, because i feel i've been really nice towards raising the turn (ie. bb never 3-bets, and the middle guy never calls the river if we just call).