Push with nines?

[Acesover8s]

Well. . .












I assume most of the players who would fold the 9JQK here would INSTAPUSH with their AAxx.

The thing that should be immediately obvious to you is that the 9JQK is in MUCH better shape against any hand your opponent can hold than AAxx would be. (except a set which is very unlikely here)

This is important.

[BluffTHIS!]

Well aces, I know you have been waiting with bated breath for my reply so here it is. The key factor is what you put your opponent on. It could a set which you seem to believe unlikely on a rainbow board but he could be afraid of a straight draw since a late position raiser could often have 8765 or similar. He could also have 2 pair with like AK93ds or bottom 2 with a straight draw himself, or just 1 pair plus a straight draw. The last possible holding is an overpair such as AA/KK played slow preflop because of junky sidecards.

As you say, your hand is not in bad shape against anything other than a set. But you want to play in a way that doesn't insure you lose the max when you are beat come the river while only winning a little when you are ahead which running him off a marginal holding would do when you raise sometimes. Like Dave said a lot depends on your read if you have played with him much. But I think a very viable option is to just call and see what the turn brings. The pot size will then be such that he has to either bet or call allin. If another high card comes and he checks, he often can be squarely put on bottom 2 or 1 pair plus a draw and you can bet top 2 then, still having outs to fill if he has a lower set, and can charge him to draw if he doesn't. And if the turn doesn't give you 2 pair but does bring a backdoor flush draw for you then you can take a free card. So in summary I prefer to call but would fold before raising. And although only calling invites the SB to come in cheaper, he will only do so with a draw or weak holding and that is more odds on your money if you are behind and need to help.

You should also think what he puts you on. If he puts you on AA he can either beat it or is trying to run you off it. So again calling lets a weaker hand bet his money off while not losing as much if he has you beat and you don't like the turn. I know I frequently criticize others for calling their stacks off with bad money odds draws, but this situation seems like it merits it if you don't think a fold is in order.

[obi---one]

you have position, why not use it?

[PokerGoblin]

I still think he has AA.

I should elaborate though.

The key is his stack size. He starts this hand w/ about 40bb. Since this is your first hand at the table, you don't know if he is stuck or if he bought in short. This info would tell you more about his intentions. He may have a ragged AAxx hand. He limped then calls out of position and short stacked. He's hoping for a non-threatening flop to get it all in on. He may think you are aggressive from prior experience with you, he may think you are on a steal pre-flop, he may figure you for the other two aces and thinks he is freerolling. He may even have the nut low draw!!! J/K I don't think this flop helped him, I just think he thinks he's tied or ahead. I think by betting he will look like he is stealing and he fully expects you to set him in. I am sure he expects the SB to fold as well (I would from your position as well).

A set is unlikely, but in PLO anything is possible. I doubt he'd play a set that fast though, especially with his stack.

As far as what to do? It depends on your buzz. If you wanna gamble, then set him in. I don't see you having any real equity edge though.

PG

[PokerGoblin]

W/ AAxx it's a little trickier. You have to look at it like the best you can hope is that you are tied, and you are way behind to hands like 3-4-5-6, etc. But, it's like you say, a lot of people will assume you have AA when you raise in PLO. They play their hands almost as if it's a foregone conclusion.

AAxx would be easier to get away from in this spot IMO.

PG

[Big Dave D]

The foe actually had bought in for 50BB nearly, if you add them up. This is far from short on most tables.

I don't see how anyone short of God can put someone on AA when he didn't make a move preflop and bets a flop that misses AA. If that's the case I must have AA nearly every hand.

In the end, if I pass Aces hand, its also because I'm happy to pass AA in that spot too.

gl

Dave

[Acesover8s]

[ QUOTE ]
The foe actually had bought in for 50BB nearly, if you add them up. This is far from short on most tables.

I don't see how anyone short of God can put someone on AA when he didn't make a move preflop and bets a flop that misses AA. If that's the case I must have AA nearly every hand.

In the end, if I pass Aces hand, its also because I'm happy to pass AA in that spot too.

gl

Dave

[/ QUOTE ]

This is key to the point I'm trying to get across. There are many players who would happily shove all their chips in with AAxx here, but would happily fold a weaker, albeit better EV-wise hand.

As far as whether he had AAxx, PG, that seems so specific of a read that I'm not sure if you're joking or not. I initially assumed you were, now I don't.

I can say with some certainty I've never seen anyone play AA that way.

[Acesover8s]

[ QUOTE ]
you have position, why not use it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Effective stacks are small, and the position doesn't do me much good. By smooth calling (as BluffThis suggested) I can make the decision to call or not call on the turn.

I did ponder this option at the time, but stack sizes make it a poor idea. It becomes problematic because there are number of turn cards that could cause me to lose my nerve. Particularly terrible cards are 7 and Ace, both of which may secure a pass when I still have the best hand.

It does have the advantage of allowing me to get my chips in as a bigger favorite if I catch an improving card on the turn; but in most spots I think pushing the flop is easier so I don't have to play guessing games.

I agree with a lot of what BluffThis says in this post, but one idea is problematic:

" So again calling lets a weaker hand bet his money off while not losing as much if he has you beat and you don't like the turn"

The problem being my hand isn't strong enough that I really want to 'walk the dog'. Even the purest bluff has some equity against me.

[PokerGoblin]

Is it that unreasonable to think he may be the weak-tight type of player who is playing above of his bankroll, yet still overvalues AA in PLO like holdem players often do?

Limping aces in EP isn't horrible if concealing the strength of your hand is your goal.

I rarely play 2-4 or higher, but at the 2-2 games on PR and the 1-2 games on party and stars I have seen this type of behavior occasionally.

Maybe AA is a bit overspecified. This seems like an odd spot to bluff, unless he puts you on a complete steal preflop. I should have said I think he has a hand that he thinks is clearly the best hand. The other overpair possibilities are less likely... if he thinks you have AA he surely won't lead out with them.

Don't keep us in suspense... what did you do?

[BluffTHIS!]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with a lot of what BluffThis says in this post, but one idea is problematic:

" So again calling lets a weaker hand bet his money off while not losing as much if he has you beat and you don't like the turn"

The problem being my hand isn't strong enough that I really want to 'walk the dog'. Even the purest bluff has some equity against me.

[/ QUOTE ]

This would be true if you have much fold equity by virtue of raising. But when he bets in front of the preflop raiser like that with a small stack left, I think your fold equity is pretty small, so again I would probably prefer just to call. The only hands he folds are an overpair or bottom 2, and with that small amount of money left he often won't let it go unless it's QQ. The prime virtue of raising though is to get rid of AA/KK and especially KK since that would nullify some of your outs.