Folding trips on the turn

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A strong ace, and any queen

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What hand is MP limping with here? AK? Q8 or worse? Those are the only hands that I'm really beating based on how he plays it.

[destroBU]

I could certainly see what he was thinking, and I think if this was an NL200 hand, again with no reads at all, I'd like this a lot.

However, from my past NL50 experience, I just so often saw bad play, and so rarely saw a hand strong enough to beat his trips here played as fast as the villain in this hand did from your average player.

With some sort of read, PA/PV stats, or something, I think this hand would be easier. I do not give the random NL50 shmuck much credit, and can easily see someone betting a decently strong A or even A + a turned FD.

I'm not 100% what the correct line should be, but I thought it was interesting enough to post. Glad to see that the responses aren't totally in agreement.

he could limp AJ, A10, A9, Q8...and Axs or Qxs...unfortunately, I don't put any of those hands past anyone at these levels.

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he could limp AJ, A10, A9, Q8...and Axs or Qxs...unfortunately, I don't put any of those hands past anyone at these levels.

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Isn't it more likely based on the way he played it that he has QT, QJ, KQ? With AA and AQ also being possible? I guess I give even the NL50 players a little more credit.

If your crazy enough to 10-table, invest in PT or some other software that will help this decision be that much easier.

You should make your decision on the flop. Nobody ever donkey raises you like that to not bet $10 when you check to them.

I really, really, really think he has a Q here and probably with a better kicker. Probably QJ/KQ knowing how low limit donkeys play.

Good fold

[Floyd Moseby]

My points in private to Kain were that he puts the Villain on a far too narrow range of hands here. You don't have to believe that all opponents are donks to put them on something other than a Q with a better kicker. Honestly, if the big stack at the table is willing to pop a reraise on the flop with nothing or a even a straight draw (as can happen once in a while), then all the check on the turn does is open the door to surrendering the pot. Nobody DOESN'T bet that turn once you check. And honestly, if you are going to check the turn with the intention of folding to a bet, then why even call the flop bet? Of course I would never advise anyway to drop at that point, but it just leads me to believe that Kain outsmarted himself here. It seems to me that he'll win this pot often enough to get it in.

Board: Qh Qd As 5h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 62.1860 % [ 00.52 00.10 ] { Qs9h }
Hand 2: 37.8140 % [ 00.27 00.10 ] { AA, AKs-AQs, KQs-KJs, QJs-Q2s, AKo-AQo, KQo-KJo, QJo-Q2o }

I tried to use a reasonable range of hands, which is why I didn't even include two blanks or middle pair. To me, the betting in this hand suggests not much more than the obvious: that the villain wanted this pot more. Also, what should be noted is that while Kain had no read on the villain, that doesn't mean the villain had no read on him. They had shared that table for an hour or so before that hand. Maybe I am gorging myself on too much information or too many possibilities, but I'm not good enough to fold this hand here. And habitually folding hands like these in similar situations wouldn't seem to be very profitable.

Great hand to discuss though.