Need a line check in the BB

[tinhat]

[ QUOTE ]
a suited jack is definitely playable in a five handed pot against any raise let alone a poster raise

I'm surprised there is any debate about this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, help me out here. I don't hesitate to toss this w/o second thought. After a cpl replies thought maybe I better see if pokerstove shows me I'm misplaying.

blinds == rake; I picked two reasonable $1/2 hands for co/button.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

850,668 games 0.016 secs 53,166,750 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 32.0279 % 31.48% 00.55% { JcJd }
Hand 2: 27.9696 % 27.09% 00.88% { AcQs }
Hand 3: 09.9262 % 09.05% 00.88% { AdTh }
Hand 4: 19.6313 % 19.60% 00.03% { 9c8c }
Hand 5: 10.4449 % 09.90% 00.55% { Js2s }


Based only on what he knows for certain (pot size when he called), he needs 6:1 to break even. Pokerstove in this case says J2s needs 9+:1.

If my math is correct and assuming any unk hands weren't even better than what I picked, the best case might be break even longterm IF sb always calls and no one ever folds the raise.

According to what I see, J2s doesn't even have a chance to be anything other than a longterm loser. Am I missing something?

Mike

[jba]

pokerstove is not the tool to use in this situation
using your methodology looks like QJs is a fold too huh

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.3233 % 36.95% 00.37% { JcJd }
Hand 2: 31.0122 % 30.68% 00.33% { AcQs }
Hand 3: 17.7185 % 17.67% 00.05% { 9c8c }
Hand 4: 13.9459 % 13.29% 00.65% { QhJh }


there are a zillion threads out there that will explain in better detail why pokerstove is worthless for a thread like this, all it gives you is hot/cold equity if everyone goes to showdown. there are other factors at work like implied odds, etc that can make calling > folding.

look for old peter rus post about calling suited trash in the BB after a raise and ONE cold caller (so in a 3way pot). I wouldn't advocate loosening up that much until you are playing at an expert level and the rake does not have nearly the impact as it does at 1/2 (I only play 5/10 where rake is still a big concern and i'm not close to expert -- so I don't go that far either). basically what it comes down to in the blinds is that if you fold you have -.5bb EV, so if you can find a way to make -.3 or -.4 bbs it is better than folding.


editted grammar

[tinhat]

[ QUOTE ]
pokerstove is not the tool to use in this situation
using your methodology looks like QJs is a fold too huh

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I stand corrected; thanks. I have more hands to play.

So this is too complicated for any tool to reduce? Is there anywhere to see starting hand values?

Mike

[tinhat]

Oh man. Look, I'm tired of this (too) and have nothing to say after this post but MUST say 3 things (to no one in particular):

1. I am not criticizing OP/OP's play; I've been questioning prematurely tossing away outs in a big pot;

edit: actually I just reread part of my other reply and it does sound like I'm criticizing; so I apologize because I really didn't intend that.

2. Nowhere did I ever say or hint this could/would be won on the flop. If somebody misinterprets my hand example, the point was (as I said when I posted it) something everybody must know - aggressors aren't always what they seem, don't automatically have killer hands, and even the most aggressive players can fold unexpectedly. Most importantly, they could be betting complete crap like I was. Am I saying OP pfrs will fold? Not at all. But did they connect? How big? Who knows; but when the pot is big I don't just assume I'm miles behind because of what the board looks like. So it didn't even occur to me ppl would think I was "proving" OP could win with a flop raise. I wasn't.

3. Generically, "winning the big pots now" is not at all a function of hand strength; not even close. If no one believes me you might want to take another look at sshe ppg 147-152 (and so I don't have to reply again, "no" I am not comparing sshe marginal hand example to OP; but IMM the underlying principle still applies).

Mike