Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible

[LinusKS]

Hamlet - nice post, and I agree the biggest problem with this play is the times you flop a set and still lose.

But I'm not sure about cutting net set profits in half when he loses 25%.

According to my rough math it looks like you should cut his net profits by 37%, not half.

I figured he put 6.5BBs into a 20bb pot, leaving him a 13.5BB profit when he wins.

But he loses 6.5BBs when his set is no good. If you average that out, that leaves him with an 8.5BB profit for all the times he makes a set.

13.5*3 = 40.5
-6.5 = 34
/4 = 8.5. (I could be going about this wrong, so please let me know if I am.)

Anyway, if you compare that to the 7.5BBs he loses when he misses the flop, that still leaves him a 1BB profit.



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I ran my TTH sim with 66 vs AA vs any2, assuming a 6 is on the flop. Even with a 6 on the flop, you will lose this pot 25% of the time. The AA will win 18.6% and the random hand will win 6.4% of the time.

So if you assume that the pots you lose are going to be the same size as the pots you win, you can pretty much cut your expected pot size in half and call that your net win when you flop a set.

If you really could be sure that your average pot was going to net the winner 20BB, it would be ok to call. I think that is very optimistic though. Even a maniac can fold. Sometimes the flop will be bad for the tight player and he will fold (whiffed with AK, JJ on a board of AK6, etc). I think that the absolute most you can average is going to be something like capped flop, 2 bets on the turn, 2 bets on the river. That gives you a net of (2.5+4+4+4) 14.5 Big Bets. Cut that in half for when you lose with a set, and you have about 7 to 1.

Even with this best case it's a loser. A few other possible problems. The maniac could 3-bet preflop-- You said he wasn't doing that, but I'm betting that if he looks down at AA-TT, AK, he'll 3-bet. Also, the BB could wake up with a hand and 3-bet. Either way, you're now trapped for 2 more small bets (asuming UTG caps).

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