I try the bet/fold line on the river with KK

sweetjazz · #1 09-28-2005, 03:41 PM

Read on villain: Over 264 hands (during which he has run good), he is 35/15/1.5 with a W2SD of 36$% and W$SD of 58%.
From the hands we have been involved in together, he seems like a solid postflop player, perhaps a bit on the passive side. He seemed to go into calldown mode when he was shown real strength. I had not seen him bluff at this point. (I know his AF is high, but I suspect this is due to his running good, as he seemed capable of getting value out of his hands.) Obviously, he's too loose preflop and he tries to steal blinds with almost any two from any late position, but that's not too relevant here I don't think, other than he could be on a wide range of hands.

I bet the river figuring that I want to get paid off if he is was raising a one pair hand on the turn, something like 98s, and is scared by the A on the river. But I fold because I do not believe him capable of bluffing here and so a raise must be at least two pair, probably a set or the flopped straight.

Is my thinking right, or should I just be check-calling here? (Anyone advocating check-folding the river???)

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $10.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, SB calls, Hero calls.

River: (14 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, SB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 17 BB

sweetjazz · #2 09-28-2005, 06:10 PM

Shameless bump; is this like 100% standard? I am generally very skeptical of bet/fold from having played at lower limits where you can never count out the donkey factor (so you're choices are really check/call and bet/call). I am wondering if this play ekes out a tiny bit of theoretical EV. I felt amazingly calm making this play and had no qualms about folding at the time. But am I getting enough calls that would check behind to overcome the donkey factor that I could be throwing away the best hand (unlikely as that is based on the action)?

TaintedRogue · #3 09-28-2005, 06:29 PM

I don't understand why you bet the river when CO raised you on the turn. What could he possibly be raising on the turn with, that you have beat, other than a flush/straight draw?
I ck/call on the river & get to see his hand. 16BBs.....
would I be on the losing end 16 times in a row against this player?