Odds and Stud

[Leavenfish]

Hello,
I've been playing a lot of 7 Card Stud lately, not having played since college. I have two Stud books: S&M&Z's newest edition of Stud for Advanced Players and Roy West's 7 Card Stud: 42 Lessons .

What I do NOT find in either is any real discussion of odds. West has a chart at the back but this is all. Does anyone know where I can find such a quick reference chart?

I might add that I do have Real Poker Night by Henry Stevenson and there is a small chart or two along with a formula for using 'baseline draws odds' of completing by end of hand and of hitting on each individual stree along with odds of Hand Improvement From 5th Street...but I find these difficult for some reason.

However, he does offer a way of dealing with odds by a "ratio of outs to unseen cards" which goes like:

"Suppose you have T,J,Q,K on 4th street, giving you and open-ended straight draw. Two players fold on 3rd street and 2 stay in. From table 12.1, your baseline odds of making the straight by the end of the hand are 1:1/2 . But what if there are aces or nines out already in your opponents' hands? Your drawing odds on each street are 1:5 . Thus as long as the ratio of dead outs to exposed cards is around 1:5, your odds of making the straight are close to the odds you've memorized (in the chart). On 4th street with two opponents in and two folding earlier, you have seen 6 board cards. If one of those 6 cards is/was a nine or an ace, the deck is still neutral for your draw, and your 1:1/2 odds for completing by the end of the hand are valid. An absence of burned outs diminishes the strength of yoru draw.
But by how much? You'll have to settle for an estimate...." and then he goes on from there.
That sounds interesting and I need to see if it works. I guess it works for 8 handed games as well though he seem to be talking about shorter handed games throughout the book.

Anyway, I was just wondering if anyone had come across a chart for your basic odds of improvement upon each street if 'x' outs still exist. When I started multi-tabling Hold'em such a chart came in rather handy.

Thanks,
Leavenfish

Check the FAQ. There's a little bit there. An other great resource is Mike Caro University:

http://www.poker1.com/mcu/mculib_odds.asp

[Andy B]

Othmer's stud book has more odds and charts than I can stomach. Enjoy.

[Leavenfish]

[ QUOTE ]
Othmer's stud book has more odds and charts than I can stomach. Enjoy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm....just googled that. I can't tell if it is worth getting or not. Maybe I did not look too closely on Caro's site but I did not really see what I am looking for either.

I guess all I am really after is something that would give me quick odds in chart form.

Say, I start with 2 spades in an 8 player game, 1 other spade is out - odds of hitting 3 more spades by 7th street then the odds on 4th street of hitting a flush if I did not improve, but 2 more spades show up in other people hands leaving...7 outs I think.

Maybe I'm not verbalizing it too well, but something like the hold'em charts you see listing the number of outs and the odds of hitting your hand in the remaining cards. Maybe such a chart doesn't exist.

How do you evaluate draws like straights or flushes? Maybe there is a way to easily calculate these odds on the fly...and maybe the comparison method in Stephenson's 'ratio of exposed cards' compared to a baseling value is the way to go but, not being mathematically inclined, I am having a bad initial reaction to it.

Thanks,
Leavenfish

[PoorLawyer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Othmer's stud book has more odds and charts than I can stomach. Enjoy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm....just googled that. I can't tell if it is worth getting or not. Maybe I did not look too closely on Caro's site but I did not really see what I am looking for either.

I guess all I am really after is something that would give me quick odds in chart form.

Say, I start with 2 spades in an 8 player game, 1 other spade is out - odds of hitting 3 more spades by 7th street then the odds on 4th street of hitting a flush if I did not improve, but 2 more spades show up in other people hands leaving...7 outs I think.

Maybe I'm not verbalizing it too well, but something like the hold'em charts you see listing the number of outs and the odds of hitting your hand in the remaining cards. Maybe such a chart doesn't exist.

How do you evaluate draws like straights or flushes? Maybe there is a way to easily calculate these odds on the fly...and maybe the comparison method in Stephenson's 'ratio of exposed cards' compared to a baseling value is the way to go but, not being mathematically inclined, I am having a bad initial reaction to it.

Thanks,
Leavenfish

[/ QUOTE ]

stud is not a cut and dry game like hold em, which is what makes it an interesting game. A chart like you propose would be huge and too cumbersome to use. the basic concepts are much more important and a lot of what you need to know is right in 7CSFAP and TOP. Basically, u need to stop thinking like a hold em player here.

[Leavenfish]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically, u need to stop thinking like a hold em player here.


[/ QUOTE ]

You may well be right there. I swear, I don't recall seeing much of anything in 7CSFAP about odds and their calculation.

---Leavenfish

[PoorLawyer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Basically, u need to stop thinking like a hold em player here.


[/ QUOTE ]

You may well be right there. I swear, I don't recall seeing much of anything in 7CSFAP about odds and their calculation.

---Leavenfish

[/ QUOTE ]

in one of those 2 books there are some charts about odds of hitting your flushes and straights depending on the number of dead cards you can see.

[BeerMoney]

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"Suppose you have T,J,Q,K on 4th street, giving you and open-ended straight draw. Two players fold on 3rd street and 2 stay in. From table 12.1, your baseline odds of making the straight by the end of the hand are 1:1/2 .

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't seem right as a flush draw which has 9 outs would be around 1:1.

[dandy_don]

[ QUOTE ]
Othmer's stud book has more odds and charts than I can stomach. Enjoy.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a great book for the math junkies like myself. Someone here ought to do a report on this book (being an Engineer, I'm no writer, so I'd prefer to leave this to those that can write).

It provides a ton of stats into easy to understand chapters, such as "Playing Pairs on 3rd Street", "...on 4th Street", "Playing 3-Flushes on 3rd Street", "Playing 4-Flushes on 4th Street", etc., charts reflecting chances for improvement in each situation and a ton of information that's really good stuff.

I had to order it from the Gambler's Bookstore on the net ($25.00).

[Leavenfish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


"Suppose you have T,J,Q,K on 4th street, giving you and open-ended straight draw. Two players fold on 3rd street and 2 stay in. From table 12.1, your baseline odds of making the straight by the end of the hand are 1:1/2 .

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't seem right as a flush draw which has 9 outs would be around 1:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you have to take into account the exposed cars as well, correct?

---Leavenfish